Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SF
Score 83.0 | Lineup K 6.76
|
6.55 | 6.80 | +0.25 | 86.4% | 75.8% | 63.1% | 49.9% | 37.5% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs LAA
Score 81.0 | Lineup K 6.85
|
5.68 | 6.24 | +0.56 | 82.4% | 70.0% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs BOS
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 5.99
|
5.93 | 6.03 | +0.10 | 80.7% | 67.6% | 53.3% | 39.6% | 27.9% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs TEX
Score 39.3 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.58 | 5.49 | -0.09 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs AZ
Score 57.8 | Lineup K 5.03
|
5.62 | 5.45 | -0.17 | 75.0% | 60.2% | 45.1% | 31.7% | 20.9% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs ATH
Score 62.5 | Lineup K 6.03
|
4.99 | 5.41 | +0.42 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CHC
Score 50.8 | Lineup K 5.30
|
5.19 | 5.23 | +0.04 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 5.49
|
4.61 | 4.94 | +0.33 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIA
Score 42.4 | Lineup K 4.58
|
5.17 | 4.93 | -0.24 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs NYY
Score 39.4 | Lineup K 5.42
|
4.48 | 4.77 | +0.29 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIL
Score 37.9 | Lineup K 4.86
|
4.73 | 4.73 | +0.00 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs HOU
Score 47.9 | Lineup K 5.29
|
4.34 | 4.66 | +0.32 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CLE
Score 63.8 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.22 | 4.65 | +0.43 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs COL
Score 60.7 | Lineup K 5.69
|
4.06 | 4.59 | +0.53 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SD
Score 57.3 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.29 | 4.58 | +0.29 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATL
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 4.48
|
4.52 | 4.44 | -0.08 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs PIT
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.02 | 4.34 | +0.32 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs DET
Score 33.7 | Lineup K 4.68
|
4.07 | 4.23 | +0.16 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TB
Score 41.4 | Lineup K 4.65
|
3.54 | 3.90 | +0.36 | 52.7% | 35.3% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CWS
Score 31.0 | Lineup K 4.25
|
3.53 | 3.72 | +0.19 | 49.5% | 32.1% | 19.1% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
Jose Quintana
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SEA
Score 28.0 | Lineup K 4.78
|
3.05 | 3.36 | +0.31 | 42.5% | 25.8% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TOR
Score 15.8 | Lineup K 3.69
|
3.23 | 3.30 | +0.07 | 41.3% | 24.8% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs WSH
Score 29.8 | Lineup K 3.54
|
3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 | 41.3% | 24.8% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.