Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs TEX
Score 68.6 | Lineup K 6.39
|
6.57 | 6.60 | +0.03 | 85.1% | 73.8% | 60.7% | 47.3% | 35.0% |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SF
Score 78.1 | Lineup K 6.27
|
6.27 | 6.41 | +0.14 | 83.7% | 71.9% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 32.6% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs KC
Score 72.2 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.72 | 5.89 | +0.17 | 79.4% | 65.9% | 51.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIA
Score 65.3 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.72 | 5.79 | +0.07 | 78.5% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 36.4% | 24.9% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs COL
Score 78.7 | Lineup K 6.53
|
4.74 | 5.43 | +0.69 | 74.8% | 59.9% | 44.8% | 31.4% | 20.7% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs NYY
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.47 | 4.86 | +0.39 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Cade Povich
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIL
Score 33.5 | Lineup K 4.64
|
4.79 | 4.67 | -0.12 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TB
Score 54.7 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.27 | 4.53 | +0.26 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TOR
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 4.41
|
4.23 | 4.24 | +0.01 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs BAL
Score 32.8 | Lineup K 5.12
|
3.84 | 4.23 | +0.39 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 39.6 | Lineup K 5.35
|
3.70 | 4.11 | +0.41 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs HOU
Score 38.6 | Lineup K 4.27
|
4.03 | 4.08 | +0.05 | 55.9% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 14.1% | 7.7% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs STL
Score 38.3 | Lineup K 4.72
|
3.06 | 3.40 | +0.34 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.