{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-19", "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-19T23:46:07.992987", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 23, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 823899, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.8, "skill_score": 65.0, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8637, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7577, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.631, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4988, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3747, "prob_4_plus": 0.8637, "prob_5_plus": 0.7577, "prob_6_plus": 0.631, "prob_7_plus": 0.4988, "prob_8_plus": 0.3747, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 94.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "matchup_score": 91.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.8, "expected_contact_quality": 92.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 823976, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 40.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8242, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7005, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5615, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.425, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3046, "prob_4_plus": 0.8242, "prob_5_plus": 0.7005, "prob_6_plus": 0.5615, "prob_7_plus": 0.425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3046, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 94.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 91.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 822921, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "skill_score": 21.6, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.03, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8068, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6764, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5334, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3965, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2786, "prob_4_plus": 0.8068, "prob_5_plus": 0.6764, "prob_6_plus": 0.5334, "prob_7_plus": 0.3965, "prob_8_plus": 0.2786, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 87.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 84.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 822843, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.214, "prob_4_plus": 0.7546, "prob_5_plus": 0.6073, "prob_6_plus": 0.4567, "prob_7_plus": 0.3221, "prob_8_plus": 0.214, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 85.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.05, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 825029, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 64.1, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7503, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6018, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4508, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3166, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2094, "prob_4_plus": 0.7503, "prob_5_plus": 0.6018, "prob_6_plus": 0.4508, "prob_7_plus": 0.3166, "prob_8_plus": 0.2094, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 70.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.4, "expected_contact_quality": 73.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.1, "expected_contact_quality": 143.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824380, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7459, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5963, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4449, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3111, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2048, "prob_4_plus": 0.7459, "prob_5_plus": 0.5963, "prob_6_plus": 0.4449, "prob_7_plus": 0.3111, "prob_8_plus": 0.2048, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.997, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 91.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824461, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 43.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.418, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "prob_4_plus": 0.7253, "prob_5_plus": 0.5705, "prob_6_plus": 0.418, "prob_7_plus": 0.2864, "prob_8_plus": 0.1846, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.038, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.1, "expected_contact_quality": 111.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 61.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824461, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 60.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "prob_4_plus": 0.6891, "prob_5_plus": 0.5269, "prob_6_plus": 0.3738, "prob_7_plus": 0.2473, "prob_8_plus": 0.1536, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.038, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 61.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.8, "expected_contact_quality": 113.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 823249, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 20.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.246, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "prob_4_plus": 0.6878, "prob_5_plus": 0.5253, "prob_6_plus": 0.3722, "prob_7_plus": 0.246, "prob_8_plus": 0.1526, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 62.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 68.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.5, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 45.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 122.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 825029, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 73.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 25.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.225, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "prob_4_plus": 0.6661, "prob_5_plus": 0.5001, "prob_6_plus": 0.3476, "prob_7_plus": 0.225, "prob_8_plus": 0.1366, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 52.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 43.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824788, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.02, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 111.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 47.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 44.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824137, "pitcher_id": 656550, "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 17.7, "opportunity_score": 21.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 88.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 52.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 72.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824380, "pitcher_id": 682052, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 41.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "prob_4_plus": 0.6491, "prob_5_plus": 0.4807, "prob_6_plus": 0.3291, "prob_7_plus": 0.2096, "prob_8_plus": 0.1251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.997, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 79.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.2, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 79.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824304, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 37.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.202, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.122, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 72.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 823249, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 42.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 77.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.8, "expected_contact_quality": 63.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 76.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824137, "pitcher_id": 669713, "pitcher_name": "Hayden Wesneski", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 9.7, "opportunity_score": 37.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.446, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.106, "prob_4_plus": 0.6176, "prob_5_plus": 0.446, "prob_6_plus": 0.2968, "prob_7_plus": 0.1834, "prob_8_plus": 0.106, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7274.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 48.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 107.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.8, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 38.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.0, "expected_contact_quality": 141.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 823330, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "prob_4_plus": 0.6019, "prob_5_plus": 0.4291, "prob_6_plus": 0.2815, "prob_7_plus": 0.1713, "prob_8_plus": 0.0975, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.3, "expected_contact_quality": 114.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 92.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824545, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 17.7, "opportunity_score": 34.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 44.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.9, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 822921, "pitcher_id": 678394, "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.9, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 39.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5274, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3529, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.216, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1222, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0645, "prob_4_plus": 0.5274, "prob_5_plus": 0.3529, "prob_6_plus": 0.216, "prob_7_plus": 0.1222, "prob_8_plus": 0.0645, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.002, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 51.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 46.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824545, "pitcher_id": 695549, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.72, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 40.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.055, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4945, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3212, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1905, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1042, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0531, "prob_4_plus": 0.4945, "prob_5_plus": 0.3212, "prob_6_plus": 0.1905, "prob_7_plus": 0.1042, "prob_8_plus": 0.0531, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 36.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 89.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Luisangel Acu\u00f1a", "matchup_score": 36.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 824304, "pitcher_id": 500779, "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 11.4, "opportunity_score": 24.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 84.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "prob_4_plus": 0.4251, "prob_5_plus": 0.2584, "prob_6_plus": 0.1427, "prob_7_plus": 0.0725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0342, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25833.0, "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.122, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 123.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 36.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 78.2, "expected_contact_quality": 68.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Canzone", "matchup_score": 28.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.4, "expected_contact_quality": 148.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 822843, "pitcher_id": 615698, "pitcher_name": "Cal Quantrill", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.3, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4132, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2481, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1353, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0678, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0316, "prob_4_plus": 0.4132, "prob_5_plus": 0.2481, "prob_6_plus": 0.1353, "prob_7_plus": 0.0678, "prob_8_plus": 0.0316, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "temperature_f": 85.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.05, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 28.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 71.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 27.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.0, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 26.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 135.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "game_pk": 823003, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.3, "skill_score": 4.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4132, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2481, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1353, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0678, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0316, "prob_4_plus": 0.4132, "prob_5_plus": 0.2481, "prob_6_plus": 0.1353, "prob_7_plus": 0.0678, "prob_8_plus": 0.0316, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 55.9, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 68.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-20T03:46:07.992810+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 688107, "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 805074, "pitcher_name": "Yunior Marte", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }