Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 80.3 | Lineup K 6.77
|
6.14 | 6.51 | +0.37 | 84.5% | 72.9% | 59.6% | 46.1% | 33.8% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs KC
Score 63.8 | Lineup K 5.61
|
6.46 | 6.23 | -0.23 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs PIT
Score 72.7 | Lineup K 5.48
|
6.06 | 5.96 | -0.10 | 80.1% | 66.8% | 52.4% | 38.7% | 27.0% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CIN
Score 78.6 | Lineup K 6.37
|
5.51 | 5.94 | +0.43 | 79.9% | 66.6% | 52.1% | 38.4% | 26.8% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 5.75
|
5.85 | 5.89 | +0.04 | 79.4% | 65.9% | 51.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs ATL
Score 51.6 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.94 | 5.82 | -0.12 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.4% | 36.8% | 25.3% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs MIN
Score 63.6 | Lineup K 6.11
|
5.14 | 5.54 | +0.40 | 76.0% | 61.4% | 46.4% | 32.9% | 22.0% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs BAL
Score 54.8 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.11 | 5.32 | +0.21 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYM
Score 42.0 | Lineup K 5.28
|
4.67 | 4.85 | +0.18 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs NYY
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.36 | 4.80 | +0.44 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIA
Score 41.5 | Lineup K 4.51
|
4.67 | 4.58 | -0.09 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs HOU
Score 38.6 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.62 | 4.55 | -0.07 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CLE
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 3.91
|
4.00 | 3.92 | -0.08 | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SD
Score 20.3 | Lineup K 3.77
|
4.07 | 3.87 | -0.20 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs SF
Score 36.6 | Lineup K 4.32
|
3.28 | 3.60 | +0.32 | 47.2% | 30.0% | 17.4% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs COL
Score 39.0 | Lineup K 4.75
|
3.11 | 3.45 | +0.34 | 44.3% | 27.4% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CHC
Score 20.8 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.12 | 3.30 | +0.18 | 41.3% | 24.8% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs AZ
Score 22.8 | Lineup K 2.98
|
3.20 | 3.06 | -0.14 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.