{ "date": "2026-07-09", "generated_at": "2026-07-09T08:06:11.679770", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 19, "skipped_start_count": 5, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 824494, "pitcher_id": 666200, "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 26.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "prob_4_plus": 0.8305, "prob_5_plus": 0.7093, "prob_6_plus": 0.572, "prob_7_plus": 0.4358, "prob_8_plus": 0.3146, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.081, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 84.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 82.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 158.9, "expected_contact_quality": 99.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 822877, "pitcher_id": 543135, "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 77.0, "opportunity_score": 74.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 15.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.106, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 73.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 824251, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.66, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "prob_4_plus": 0.7672, "prob_5_plus": 0.6235, "prob_6_plus": 0.4743, "prob_7_plus": 0.3386, "prob_8_plus": 0.228, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.87, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 92.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.1, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 74.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 69.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 73.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823683, "pitcher_id": 668909, "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 56.3, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 26.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "prob_4_plus": 0.7557, "prob_5_plus": 0.6087, "prob_6_plus": 0.4582, "prob_7_plus": 0.3235, "prob_8_plus": 0.2151, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 73.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 61.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823359, "pitcher_id": 693821, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.999, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 89.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 44.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.3, "expected_contact_quality": 116.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.9, "expected_contact_quality": 108.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823606, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 16.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "prob_4_plus": 0.6757, "prob_5_plus": 0.5112, "prob_6_plus": 0.3584, "prob_7_plus": 0.2341, "prob_8_plus": 0.1435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 824816, "pitcher_id": 656849, "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 34.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.059, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 56.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 114.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.4, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 824494, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 36.8, "opportunity_score": 40.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "prob_4_plus": 0.6534, "prob_5_plus": 0.4856, "prob_6_plus": 0.3337, "prob_7_plus": 0.2134, "prob_8_plus": 0.1279, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.081, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 62.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.1 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 54.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.0, "expected_contact_quality": 112.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 824816, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 13.7, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.059, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.7, "expected_contact_quality": 118.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 49.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 44.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823359, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 58.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.999, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.7, "expected_contact_quality": 119.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823606, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 78.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 8.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "prob_4_plus": 0.6373, "prob_5_plus": 0.4676, "prob_6_plus": 0.3168, "prob_7_plus": 0.1995, "prob_8_plus": 0.1176, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 75.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 48.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.4, "expected_contact_quality": 115.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.8, "expected_contact_quality": 102.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 114.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823683, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "prob_5_plus": 0.461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "prob_8_plus": 0.114, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 81.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.7, "expected_contact_quality": 93.0 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 69.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 68.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823846, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 66.1, "opportunity_score": 46.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.913, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 72.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.9, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 70.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.0, "expected_contact_quality": 113.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 822954, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 96.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.6114, "prob_5_plus": 0.4392, "prob_6_plus": 0.2907, "prob_7_plus": 0.1785, "prob_8_plus": 0.1026, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 96.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.046, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 125.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 108.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823277, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "prob_4_plus": 0.6035, "prob_5_plus": 0.4308, "prob_6_plus": 0.283, "prob_7_plus": 0.1725, "prob_8_plus": 0.0984, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 60.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 96.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.5, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823277, "pitcher_id": 656288, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 35.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "prob_4_plus": 0.5381, "prob_5_plus": 0.3634, "prob_6_plus": 0.2247, "prob_7_plus": 0.1285, "prob_8_plus": 0.0685, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 37.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 25.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.7, "expected_contact_quality": 103.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823201, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 25.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "prob_4_plus": 0.5093, "prob_5_plus": 0.3353, "prob_6_plus": 0.2017, "prob_7_plus": 0.112, "prob_8_plus": 0.058, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 56.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 51.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 72.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823846, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.55, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "prob_4_plus": 0.4623, "prob_5_plus": 0.2914, "prob_6_plus": 0.1673, "prob_7_plus": 0.0885, "prob_8_plus": 0.0435, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.913, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "matchup_score": 27.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 47.3, "expected_contact_quality": 94.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 25.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 57.1, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "game_pk": 823034, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "prob_4_plus": 0.4487, "prob_5_plus": 0.2792, "prob_6_plus": 0.1581, "prob_7_plus": 0.0824, "prob_8_plus": 0.0399, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 33.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.5, "expected_contact_quality": 96.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.4, "expected_contact_quality": 61.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.0, "expected_contact_quality": 63.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }