Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | confirmed
|
TOR vs PIT
Score 73.9 | Lineup K 6.42
|
6.94 | 6.89 | -0.05 | 86.9% | 76.6% | 64.1% | 51.0% | 38.6% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 6.25
|
5.77 | 6.01 | +0.24 | 80.5% | 67.4% | 53.1% | 39.4% | 27.6% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs ATH
Score 69.9 | Lineup K 6.31
|
5.08 | 5.60 | +0.52 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs MIL
Score 67.7 | Lineup K 5.50
|
5.49 | 5.57 | +0.08 | 76.3% | 61.8% | 46.9% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CWS
Score 57.2 | Lineup K 5.32
|
5.58 | 5.47 | -0.11 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIN
Score 69.7 | Lineup K 6.45
|
4.68 | 5.38 | +0.70 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | confirmed
|
KC vs SEA
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 5.42
|
5.11 | 5.20 | +0.09 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | confirmed
|
DET vs BAL
Score 56.6 | Lineup K 6.32
|
4.57 | 5.15 | +0.58 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs HOU
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 4.72
|
5.35 | 5.11 | -0.24 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | confirmed
|
SEA vs KC
Score 59.5 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.71 | 4.88 | +0.17 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 4.22
|
5.25 | 4.85 | -0.40 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs DET
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 5.19
|
4.72 | 4.85 | +0.13 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.49
|
4.28 | 4.72 | +0.44 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 49.3 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.45 | 4.66 | +0.21 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | confirmed
|
MIN vs BOS
Score 51.5 | Lineup K 5.23
|
3.97 | 4.46 | +0.49 | 62.1% | 44.9% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | confirmed
|
PIT vs TOR
Score 49.0 | Lineup K 4.90
|
3.90 | 4.25 | +0.35 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | confirmed
|
TB vs NYY
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 4.72
|
3.90 | 4.19 | +0.29 | 57.8% | 40.3% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
Brandon Young
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs DET
Score 32.3 | Lineup K 4.28
|
3.67 | 3.83 | +0.16 | 51.5% | 34.1% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | confirmed
|
STL vs CIN
Score 30.4 | Lineup K 4.51
|
3.45 | 3.76 | +0.31 | 50.2% | 32.8% | 19.6% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs WSH
Score 27.4 | Lineup K 4.09
|
3.48 | 3.63 | +0.15 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Jose Quintana
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 22.7 | Lineup K 3.74
|
2.66 | 2.91 | +0.25 | 33.4% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.