Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 70.7 | Lineup K 5.74
|
5.91 | 5.95 | +0.04 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs KC
Score 62.8 | Lineup K 5.39
|
5.85 | 5.75 | -0.10 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
Spencer Strider
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs BOS
Score 67.3 | Lineup K 6.73
|
4.84 | 5.50 | +0.66 | 75.6% | 60.9% | 45.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SD
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.17 | 5.32 | +0.15 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs WSH
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 4.94
|
5.35 | 5.22 | -0.13 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs STL
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 4.89
|
5.37 | 5.18 | -0.19 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 35.5 | Lineup K 4.73
|
5.48 | 5.16 | -0.32 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 4.92
|
5.28 | 5.16 | -0.12 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SEA
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.84 | 4.85 | +0.01 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs ATL
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.63 | 4.83 | +0.20 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs TOR
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 4.98
|
4.70 | 4.76 | +0.06 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs COL
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.27 | 4.59 | +0.32 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.29 | 4.39 | +0.10 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SF
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.02 | 4.38 | +0.36 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs AZ
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 3.75
|
4.65 | 4.27 | -0.38 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 34.4 | Lineup K 4.51
|
4.14 | 4.22 | +0.08 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Jason Alexander
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TEX
Score 32.1 | Lineup K 4.60
|
3.64 | 3.92 | +0.28 | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs DET
Score 18.3 | Lineup K 4.23
|
3.79 | 3.84 | +0.05 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs LAA
Score 38.8 | Lineup K 4.60
|
3.48 | 3.84 | +0.36 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 17.9 | Lineup K 3.92
|
3.92 | 3.82 | -0.10 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PHI
Score 16.8 | Lineup K 3.59
|
3.72 | 3.58 | -0.14 | 46.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Bailey Falter
Probable | projected
|
KC vs NYY
Score 17.5 | Lineup K 4.00
|
3.28 | 3.44 | +0.16 | 44.1% | 27.2% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs CLE
Score 40.4 | Lineup K 4.24
|
3.04 | 3.38 | +0.34 | 42.9% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIL
Score 25.1 | Lineup K 3.76
|
2.83 | 3.09 | +0.26 | 37.1% | 21.3% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.