{ "date": "2026-05-24", "generated_at": "2026-05-24T10:56:08.961012", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 21, "skipped_start_count": 10, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 822813, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.89, "skill_score": 76.8, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.89, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "prob_4_plus": 0.8692, "prob_5_plus": 0.7659, "prob_6_plus": 0.6414, "prob_7_plus": 0.5102, "prob_8_plus": 0.386, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.97, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Gonzales", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.1, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jared Triolo", "matchup_score": 80.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Esmerlyn Valdez", "matchup_score": 78.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 61.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824028, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.8051, "prob_5_plus": 0.674, "prob_6_plus": 0.5307, "prob_7_plus": 0.3937, "prob_8_plus": 0.2762, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 74.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.1, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.4, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 823297, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 52.0, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "prob_4_plus": 0.7662, "prob_5_plus": 0.6222, "prob_6_plus": 0.4728, "prob_7_plus": 0.3373, "prob_8_plus": 0.2268, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.957, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 90.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 178.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 86.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.8, "expected_contact_quality": 62.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 78.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 823786, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 44.6, "opportunity_score": 72.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "prob_4_plus": 0.7631, "prob_5_plus": 0.6182, "prob_6_plus": 0.4685, "prob_7_plus": 0.3331, "prob_8_plus": 0.2233, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.008, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 91.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 75.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 823220, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.967, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 70.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 67.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824759, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 18.6, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjustment_delta": 0.7, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "prob_4_plus": 0.7426, "prob_5_plus": 0.592, "prob_6_plus": 0.4405, "prob_7_plus": 0.3069, "prob_8_plus": 0.2014, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 88.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.1, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824108, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.7217, "prob_5_plus": 0.5661, "prob_6_plus": 0.4134, "prob_7_plus": 0.2823, "prob_8_plus": 0.1813, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "J.P. Crawford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mitch Garver", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Emerson", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.2, "expected_contact_quality": 86.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Cole Young", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 81.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824839, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 24.7, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Blaze Alexander", "matchup_score": 79.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Coby Mayo", "matchup_score": 72.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.4, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 66.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824676, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 36.4, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 79.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.2, "expected_contact_quality": 73.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824108, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Maikel Garcia", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carter Jensen", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 71.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jac Caglianone", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.4, "expected_contact_quality": 67.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 823544, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 54.6, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 52.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Fraley", "matchup_score": 48.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Gavin Lux", "matchup_score": 48.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824840, "pitcher_id": 669432, "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 23.6, "opportunity_score": 29.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "temperature_f": 59.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.997, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 104.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824514, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "prob_4_plus": 0.6591, "prob_5_plus": 0.4921, "prob_6_plus": 0.3399, "prob_7_plus": 0.2186, "prob_8_plus": 0.1317, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 69.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.1, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 63.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 825081, "pitcher_id": 669194, "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 28.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "prob_4_plus": 0.6505, "prob_5_plus": 0.4824, "prob_6_plus": 0.3306, "prob_7_plus": 0.2109, "prob_8_plus": 0.126, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 65.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824759, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "prob_4_plus": 0.6207, "prob_5_plus": 0.4493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2999, "prob_7_plus": 0.1858, "prob_8_plus": 0.1078, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.954, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Masataka Yoshida", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "matchup_score": 70.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Sogard", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 822813, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.97, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Yohendrick Pi\u00f1ango", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kazuma Okamoto", "matchup_score": 60.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 59.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Valenzuela", "matchup_score": 54.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 823544, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "prob_4_plus": 0.5775, "prob_5_plus": 0.4034, "prob_6_plus": 0.2588, "prob_7_plus": 0.1538, "prob_8_plus": 0.0854, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Paul Goldschmidt", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan McMahon", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 78.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wells", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824839, "pitcher_id": 687064, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "prob_4_plus": 0.5148, "prob_5_plus": 0.3406, "prob_6_plus": 0.206, "prob_7_plus": 0.115, "prob_8_plus": 0.0599, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kevin McGonigle", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Short", "matchup_score": 48.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.8, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Wenceel P\u00e9rez", "matchup_score": 36.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824514, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 22.2, "opportunity_score": 31.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "prob_4_plus": 0.5019, "prob_5_plus": 0.3283, "prob_6_plus": 0.1961, "prob_7_plus": 0.1081, "prob_8_plus": 0.0555, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Blake Dunn", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Sal Stewart", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Blake Dunn", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 34.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 110.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 33.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 112.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 824921, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 27.1, "opportunity_score": 37.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.4776, "prob_5_plus": 0.3054, "prob_6_plus": 0.1781, "prob_7_plus": 0.0957, "prob_8_plus": 0.0479, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.009, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 36.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Young", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 66.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "game_pk": 825081, "pitcher_id": 500779, "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 9.0, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "prob_4_plus": 0.3337, "prob_5_plus": 0.1836, "prob_6_plus": 0.0912, "prob_7_plus": 0.0415, "prob_8_plus": 0.0175, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25833.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 38.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.8, "expected_contact_quality": 119.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687075, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702273, "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 665622, "pitcher_name": "Luis Medina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 672282, "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }