Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 6.55 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 5.93 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs LAA | 5.68 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs AZ | 5.62 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 7 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TEX | 5.58 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIN | 5.49 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 5 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 5.19 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIA | 5.17 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs ATH | 4.99 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIL | 4.73 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 4.61 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs KC | 4.53 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATL | 4.52 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs NYY | 4.48 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs HOU | 4.34 | 21.5% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 5 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PHI | 4.32 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SD | 4.29 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Yunior Marte
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CLE | 4.22 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.07 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs COL | 4.06 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs PIT | 4.02 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYM | 3.90 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs STL | 3.66 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 3.54 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 3.53 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs BAL | 3.41 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs WSH | 3.25 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 6 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TOR | 3.23 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Jose Quintana
Probable starter
|
COL vs SEA | 3.05 | 14.0% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.