Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 6.95 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 6.06 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs NYM | 6.00 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 7 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs HOU | 5.93 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 5.88 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 5.83 | 23.0% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 6 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 5.34 | 29.6% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.99 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 4.72 | 21.5% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 5 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIA | 4.71 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAD | 4.67 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Riley Cornelio
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.60 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.60 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs TEX | 4.47 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 4.35 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs WSH | 4.32 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
David Sandlin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs STL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs DET | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 4.15 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TB | 4.14 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs KC | 4.07 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 4.06 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs BOS | 4.02 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs NYY | 3.94 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs COL | 3.91 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 3.90 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 3.79 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CWS | 3.25 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 6 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs AZ | 2.85 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.