Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CHC | 5.92 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TEX | 5.92 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TOR | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 5.22 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs NYM | 4.94 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs TB | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATH | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SEA | 4.52 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs HOU | 4.40 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SF | 4.30 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs DET | 4.24 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs PIT | 4.05 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs STL | 3.85 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Legumina
Probable starter
|
TB vs KC | 3.74 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs AZ | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.