Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs NYY | 5.76 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 5.34 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 5.10 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs STL | 5.07 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs BAL | 4.95 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cade Povich
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIA | 4.38 | 21.9% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 1 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIN | 4.28 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATH | 4.26 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PIT | 4.22 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs PHI | 4.13 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs WSH | 3.96 | 18.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs COL | 3.92 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs AZ | 3.89 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Paul Blackburn
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TEX | 3.49 | 20.3% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs SD | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jose Quintana
Probable starter
|
COL vs NYM | 3.04 | 14.0% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.