Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Tyler Holton

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 200 lb · Age 30

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024722.19669894.1770.78
2025653.66706078.2641.04
2026252.75673272.0551.25
5 Seasons18142.652721911339.12760.97
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal7 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace2.78
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.18 2.64 3.14 3.65 4.10
FIP
3.54 3.79 4.07 4.35 4.60
K%
16.5% 17.8% 19.2% 20.6% 21.9%
BB%
4.7% 5.3% 6.0% 6.8% 7.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA2.78
86
BB%6.1%
88
K%18.1%
22
xwOBA allowed0.300
68 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
83 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo91.2
8
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
47
Whiff%21.6%
43
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+104
77
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+96
1
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+95
12
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holton, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-09-12: 0.2962026-09-13: 0.2962026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.3012026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3012026-09-25: 0.3012026-09-26: 0.300 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holton, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 31.6%Sinker: 20.3%Changeup: 16.7%Sweeper: 15.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7%Curveball: 3.5% FC32% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 32%SI 20%CH 17%ST 15%FF 13%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mphSinker: 20% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.0 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.4 mphCH83 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.5 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 31.7% 274 104 qualified
SI 20.9% 181 101 limited sample
SL 16.0% 138 95 limited sample
CH 15.4% 133 102 limited sample
FB 12.5% 108 98 limited sample
CB 3.5% 30 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lb
Debut2022-04-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.88
K% Δ-0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.334
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.300

Holton’s wOBA-against sits at 0.334, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.300 — a gap of 0.034, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 72 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-07-31Contact quality stayed muted throughout the start
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.2% K | 3.66 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs CLE1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ BOS3 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-15 vs KC0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-09 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-07 @ MIN0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP