Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 7.58 | 32.3% | 32.3% | 22.5% | 18.6 | 5 | 23 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BAL | 6.63 | 24.3% | 23.7% | 22.5% | 18.7 | 6 | 23 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 6.58 | 27.6% | 21.7% | 22.5% | 16.3 | 5 | 24 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATH | 6.17 | 24.6% | 25.8% | 22.5% | 16.6 | 6 | 25 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TOR | 5.96 | 26.9% | 30.4% | 22.5% | 16.8 | 6 | 23 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TEX | 5.86 | 22.1% | 21.4% | 22.5% | 16.5 | 6 | 24 |
Charlie Morton
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 5.77 | 23.0% | 22.9% | 22.5% | 15.4 | 6 | 19 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs ATL | 5.49 | 25.9% | 24.9% | 22.5% | 14.5 | 6 | 7 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYM | 5.49 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.5% | 17.2 | 7 | 24 |
Luis Gil
Probable starter
|
NYY vs STL | 5.12 | 25.5% | 23.6% | 22.5% | 15.1 | 6 | 2 |
Lucas Giolito
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIA | 5.06 | 20.2% | 16.7% | 22.5% | 16.4 | 6 | 18 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SEA | 4.99 | 23.5% | 23.4% | 22.5% | 15.7 | 5 | 5 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.93 | 19.6% | 17.5% | 22.5% | 16.1 | 5 | 24 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 4.90 | 29.4% | 34.6% | 22.5% | 15.0 | 10 | 7 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 4.90 | 20.8% | 21.0% | 22.5% | 16.8 | 6 | 16 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs TB | 4.71 | 21.1% | 21.6% | 22.5% | 15.2 | 10 | 20 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 4.65 | 18.3% | 20.2% | 22.5% | 16.9 | 6 | 23 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.54 | 18.9% | 18.7% | 22.5% | 16.0 | 6 | 20 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs BOS | 4.52 | 17.7% | 16.4% | 22.5% | 15.7 | 6 | 23 |
Joe Boyle
Probable starter
|
TB vs SF | 4.51 | 24.5% | 26.7% | 22.5% | 13.6 | 6 | 4 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 4.42 | 22.2% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 15.2 | 6 | 2 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 4.41 | 20.3% | 25.4% | 22.5% | 15.0 | 7 | 15 |
Wandy Peralta
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 4.22 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.5% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Clayton Kershaw
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 3.96 | 17.3% | 14.5% | 22.5% | 15.0 | 7 | 14 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYY | 3.90 | 15.9% | 15.7% | 22.5% | 16.2 | 6 | 23 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 3.81 | 20.5% | 19.1% | 22.5% | 14.3 | 6 | 10 |
Pierson Ohl
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 3.80 | 22.6% | 23.5% | 22.5% | 14.2 | 9 | 2 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 3.57 | 22.9% | 24.2% | 22.5% | 14.4 | 6 | 2 |
Hurston Waldrep
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CLE | 3.55 | 20.5% | 17.9% | 22.5% | 15.1 | 6 | 1 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 3.53 | 16.0% | 13.9% | 22.5% | 14.3 | 5 | 7 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.