Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-15 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-15
96 matched props 69 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-18 Older: 2026-09-14

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 96
Grouped Pitchers 18
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 69
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-15 | Raw sportsbook rows: 96 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-15/strikeout_edges_2026-09-15.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs PIT | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.96
Strongest Gap Under +24.66%
Best Line 8.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
8.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -32.11% / Under gap +24.66%
Under +24.66%
DraftKings
8.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -28.62% / Under gap +22.60%
Under +22.60%
FanDuel
8.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -27.16% / Under gap +21.17%
Under +21.17%
FanDuel
8.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -27.16% / Under gap +21.17%
Under +21.17%
FanDuel
4.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -30.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -37.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -38.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -41.31% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.9% | U 82.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.7
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.87
Strongest Gap Over +21.05%
Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
2.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +21.05% / Under gap -27.19%
Over +21.05%
FanDuel
2.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap +20.07% / Under gap -26.00%
Over +20.07%
BetMGM
2.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +16.50% / Under gap -23.43%
Over +16.50%
Model O 71.0% | U 28.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs CIN | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 5.94
Strongest Gap Under +19.97%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -26.07% / Under gap +19.97%
Under +19.97%
FanDuel
7.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -25.85% / Under gap +19.75%
Under +19.75%
FanDuel
7.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -25.85% / Under gap +19.75%
Under +19.75%
FanDuel
8.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -20.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -27.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -32.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -33.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.8% | U 73.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.6
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs CLE | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.92
Strongest Gap Over +16.41%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +16.41% / Under gap --
Over +16.41%
FanDuel
3.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap +15.22% / Under gap --
Over +15.22%
DraftKings
2.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +13.79% / Under gap -19.85%
Over +13.79%
FanDuel
2.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +12.09% / Under gap -18.07%
Over +12.09%
FanDuel
2.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +12.09% / Under gap -18.07%
Over +12.09%
BetMGM
2.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap +8.13% / Under gap -15.25%
Over +8.13%
Model O 35.6% | U 64.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.5
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs BAL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.32
Strongest Gap Under +11.45%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +11.45%
Under +11.45%
FanDuel
6.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +11.45%
Under +11.45%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -17.75% / Under gap +10.13%
Under +10.13%
DraftKings
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -15.58% / Under gap +9.50%
Under +9.50%
FanDuel
8.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -6.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -12.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -19.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -24.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -24.98% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.9% | U 70.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.8
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.89
Strongest Gap Under +9.66%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -15.76% / Under gap +9.66%
Under +9.66%
DraftKings
6.5
O -114 / U -112
Over gap -15.54% / Under gap +9.44%
Under +9.44%
BetMGM
6.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -15.76% / Under gap +8.78%
Under +8.78%
Model O 37.7% | U 62.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.7
Max Fried headshot

Max Fried
NYY vs MIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.54
Strongest Gap Over +8.28%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +8.28% / Under gap --
Over +8.28%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +7.90% / Under gap --
Over +7.90%
FanDuel
5.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap +4.74% / Under gap --
Over +4.74%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +1.73% / Under gap -7.71%
Over +1.73%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U --
Over gap +1.73% / Under gap --
Over +1.73%
DraftKings
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap +0.78% / Under gap -6.86%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap -7.19%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -4.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.6
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs NYY | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.80
Strongest Gap Over +7.74%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +7.74% / Under gap --
Over +7.74%
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap +7.44% / Under gap --
Over +7.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +6.24% / Under gap -12.32%
Over +6.24%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +6.24% / Under gap -12.32%
Over +6.24%
DraftKings
4.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap +3.54% / Under gap -9.51%
Over +3.54%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +1.71% / Under gap -8.82%
Over +1.71%
FanDuel
3.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -1.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -3.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.9% | U 77.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.4
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Under +7.06%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -14.35% / Under gap +7.06%
Under +7.06%
DraftKings
4.5
O -131 / U +103
Over gap -10.28% / Under gap +4.31%
Under +4.31%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -8.52% / Under gap +2.59%
Under +2.59%
Model O 46.4% | U 53.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.6
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
CHC vs ATL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.82
Strongest Gap Over +5.30%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +5.30% / Under gap --
Over +5.30%
FanDuel
6.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +2.28% / Under gap --
Over +2.28%
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -2.18% / Under gap -3.92%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -7.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -7.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -8.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.3% | U 74.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.6
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs AZ | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.06
Strongest Gap Over +3.95%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +3.95% / Under gap -10.05%
Over +3.95%
DraftKings
2.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap +2.45% / Under gap -8.46%
Over +2.45%
BetMGM
2.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -0.45% / Under gap -7.00%
No Play
Model O 57.0% | U 43.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.8
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs LAA | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.51
Strongest Gap Under +3.89%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -11.34% / Under gap +3.89%
Under +3.89%
DraftKings
6.5
O -121 / U -105
Over gap -8.64% / Under gap +2.67%
Under +2.67%
FanDuel
6.5
O -115 / U -113
Over gap -7.38% / Under gap +0.84%
No Play
Model O 46.1% | U 53.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.3
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs COL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.45
Strongest Gap Under +3.33%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -10.26% / Under gap +3.33%
Under +3.33%
FanDuel
3.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -5.71% / Under gap -0.43%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -4.25% / Under gap -1.74%
No Play
Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.0
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs CHC | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.30
Strongest Gap Under +2.93%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -101 / U -126
Over gap -8.93% / Under gap +2.93%
Under +2.93%
FanDuel
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -7.70% / Under gap +1.78%
Under +1.78%
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -7.46% / Under gap +0.35%
No Play
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.8
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs NYM | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.85
Strongest Gap Over +2.69%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +2.69% / Under gap --
Over +2.69%
DraftKings
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -7.05% / Under gap +1.10%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +0.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -5.24% / Under gap -0.78%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -5.24% / Under gap -0.78%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +140 / U -190
Over gap -5.68% / Under gap -1.51%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -2.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -8.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -9.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 14.4% | U 85.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.0
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs SF | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.60
Strongest Gap Under +1.59%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -7.76% / Under gap +1.59%
Under +1.59%
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -6.30% / Under gap +0.20%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -6.30% / Under gap +0.20%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -6.30% / Under gap -0.68%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -1.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap -3.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -10.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.2% | U 52.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.6
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs KC | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 6.23
Strongest Gap Over +1.55%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +145 / U -200
Over gap +1.55% / Under gap -9.04%
Over +1.55%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -0.12% / Under gap -6.02%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -141 / U +110
Over gap -2.49% / Under gap -3.64%
No Play
Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.8
Michael Soroka headshot

Michael Soroka
AZ vs MIA | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap No Play -0.24%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +112 / U -140
Over gap -0.24% / Under gap -5.26%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -1.61% / Under gap -4.38%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -4.29% / Under gap -2.49%
No Play
Model O 46.9% | U 53.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.