{ "date": "2026-09-15", "generated_at": "2026-09-15T08:04:22.125201", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-09-15", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 165, "matched_count": 96, "unmatched_count": 69 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 96, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 96, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:26.042Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.3211, "edge_under": 0.2466, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2466, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:26.542Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -147, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4387, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5613, "edge_over": -0.2862, "edge_under": 0.226, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.226, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.2716, "edge_under": 0.2117, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2117, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.2716, "edge_under": 0.2117, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2117, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:44.956Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7105, "model_under_probability": 0.2895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": 0.2105, "edge_under": -0.2719, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.2105, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7105, "model_under_probability": 0.2895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": 0.2007, "edge_under": -0.26, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.2007, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:19.455Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2676, "model_under_probability": 0.7324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.2607, "edge_under": 0.1997, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1997, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2676, "model_under_probability": 0.7324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2585, "edge_under": 0.1975, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1975, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2676, "model_under_probability": 0.7324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2585, "edge_under": 0.1975, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1975, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:23.456Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7105, "model_under_probability": 0.2895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.165, "edge_under": -0.2343, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.165, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3564, "model_under_probability": 0.6436, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1641, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1641, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.531, "model_under_probability": 0.469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1522, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1522, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:11.742Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7177, "model_under_probability": 0.2823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": 0.1379, "edge_under": -0.1985, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1379, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7177, "model_under_probability": 0.2823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": 0.1209, "edge_under": -0.1807, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1209, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7177, "model_under_probability": 0.2823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": 0.1209, "edge_under": -0.1807, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1209, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2987, "model_under_probability": 0.7013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.173, "edge_under": 0.1145, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1145, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2987, "model_under_probability": 0.7013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.173, "edge_under": 0.1145, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1145, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:39.465Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2987, "model_under_probability": 0.7013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1775, "edge_under": 0.1013, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1013, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 45.5, "opportunity_score": 66.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 22.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3773, "model_under_probability": 0.6227, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1576, "edge_under": 0.0966, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0966, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:46.965Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2987, "model_under_probability": 0.7013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1558, "edge_under": 0.095, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.095, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:03.946Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 45.5, "opportunity_score": 66.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 22.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3773, "model_under_probability": 0.6227, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5021, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4979, "edge_over": -0.1554, "edge_under": 0.0944, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0944, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:25.946Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 45.5, "opportunity_score": 66.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 22.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3773, "model_under_probability": 0.6227, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1576, "edge_under": 0.0878, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0878, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2198, "model_under_probability": 0.7802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0828, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0828, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:55.242Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -175, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7177, "model_under_probability": 0.2823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5941, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4059, "edge_over": 0.0813, "edge_under": -0.1525, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0813, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.329, "model_under_probability": 0.671, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.079, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.079, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2289, "model_under_probability": 0.7711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0774, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0774, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3522, "model_under_probability": 0.6478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0744, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0744, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:34.298Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 75.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1435, "edge_under": 0.0706, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0706, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5049, "model_under_probability": 0.4951, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": 0.0624, "edge_under": -0.1232, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0624, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5049, "model_under_probability": 0.4951, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": 0.0624, "edge_under": -0.1232, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0624, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.053, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.053, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4641, "model_under_probability": 0.5359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, 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4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 75.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5671, 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"suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4719, "model_under_probability": 0.5281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.063, "edge_under": 0.002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4719, "model_under_probability": 0.5281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.063, "edge_under": 0.002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:33.818Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4641, "model_under_probability": 0.5359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.001, "edge_under": -0.0719, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.001, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5602, "model_under_probability": 0.4398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.0012, "edge_under": -0.0602, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0012, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4471, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5529, "edge_over": -0.0024, "edge_under": -0.0526, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0024, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 20.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4429, "model_under_probability": 0.5571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.0571, "edge_under": -0.0043, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0043, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:49.135Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 3.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.57, "model_under_probability": 0.43, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0045, "edge_under": -0.07, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:22.975Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4719, "model_under_probability": 0.5281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.063, "edge_under": -0.0068, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0068, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5128, "model_under_probability": 0.4872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0524, "edge_under": -0.0078, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:57:07.021Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5128, "model_under_probability": 0.4872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0524, "edge_under": -0.0078, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.174, "model_under_probability": 0.826, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0112, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6702, "model_under_probability": 0.3298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:39.465Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": -190, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6552, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3887, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6113, "edge_over": -0.0568, "edge_under": -0.0151, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:34.135Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": -0.0161, "edge_under": -0.0438, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0161, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:44.956Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 20.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4429, "model_under_probability": 0.5571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": -0.0425, "edge_under": -0.0174, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0174, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5043, "model_under_probability": 0.4957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0218, "edge_under": -0.0392, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0218, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0218, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0218, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:07.298Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5602, "model_under_probability": 0.4398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5513, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4487, "edge_over": -0.0249, "edge_under": -0.0364, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0249, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:58:49.135Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0429, "edge_under": -0.0249, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0249, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.821, "model_under_probability": 0.179, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0341, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0341, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 196, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3002, "model_under_probability": 0.6998, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3378, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0376, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0376, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7599, "model_under_probability": 0.2401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0401, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0401, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8791, "model_under_probability": 0.1209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.044, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.044, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.12, "model_under_probability": 0.88, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0652, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0652, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6507, "model_under_probability": 0.3493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0753, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0753, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8959, "model_under_probability": 0.1041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0763, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0763, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8256, "model_under_probability": 0.1744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0835, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0835, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7878, "model_under_probability": 0.2122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0872, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0872, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6771, "model_under_probability": 0.3229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0956, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0956, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6687, "model_under_probability": 0.3313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1091, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1091, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1946, "model_under_probability": 0.8054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1229, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1229, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7357, "model_under_probability": 0.2643, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1976, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1976, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the 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"Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4315, "model_under_probability": 0.5685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2459, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2459, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, 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"projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong 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"temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }