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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-18 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-18
35 matched props 35 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-19 Older: 2026-09-15

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 35
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 35
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-18 | Raw sportsbook rows: 35 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-18/strikeout_edges_2026-09-18.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.40
Strongest Gap Under +40.78%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -47.48% / Under gap +40.78%
Under +40.78%
DraftKings
6.5
O +103 / U -131
Over gap -41.69% / Under gap +35.72%
Under +35.72%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -39.16% / Under gap +33.08%
Under +33.08%
Model O 14.8% | U 85.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.3
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
MIL vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.23
Strongest Gap Under +17.57%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -23.77% / Under gap +17.57%
Under +17.57%
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -22.54% / Under gap +16.62%
Under +16.62%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -23.52% / Under gap +16.07%
Under +16.07%
Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.8
Clay Holmes headshot

Clay Holmes
CHC vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.11
Strongest Gap Under +9.83%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -17.57% / Under gap +9.83%
Under +9.83%
DraftKings
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -14.54% / Under gap +8.44%
Under +8.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -11.05% / Under gap +4.91%
Under +4.91%
Model O 39.0% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.6
Tyler Glasnow headshot

Tyler Glasnow
LAD vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.41
Strongest Gap Under +9.35%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -15.22% / Under gap +9.35%
Under +9.35%
DraftKings
6.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -14.90% / Under gap +8.92%
Under +8.92%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -13.55% / Under gap +6.44%
Under +6.44%
Model O 44.8% | U 55.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.1
Nick Pivetta headshot

Nick Pivetta
SD vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.79
Strongest Gap Over +7.46%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap +7.46% / Under gap -14.92%
Over +7.46%
DraftKings
4.5
O -165 / U +129
Over gap +2.43% / Under gap -8.36%
Over +2.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap +2.28% / Under gap -8.17%
Over +2.28%
Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.3
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
ATL vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.08
Strongest Gap Under +7.02%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +7.02%
Under +7.02%
DraftKings
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -12.55% / Under gap +6.62%
Under +6.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -10.59% / Under gap +4.67%
Under +4.67%
Model O 38.4% | U 61.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.6
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs TEX | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.60
Strongest Gap Under +5.03%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -10.90% / Under gap +5.03%
Under +5.03%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -12.65% / Under gap +5.03%
Under +5.03%
FanDuel
7.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -10.48% / Under gap +4.40%
Under +4.40%
Model O 35.0% | U 65.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.6
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs NYY | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.86
Strongest Gap Under +3.72%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -157 / U +123
Over gap -9.65% / Under gap +3.72%
Under +3.72%
FanDuel
4.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -7.24% / Under gap +1.39%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -6.01% / Under gap -1.44%
No Play
Model O 51.4% | U 48.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.3
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs COL | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.43
Strongest Gap No Play +1.22%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap -7.29%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +0.55% / Under gap -6.63%
No Play
Model O 59.9% | U 40.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.7
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs TB | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.53
Strongest Gap No Play -0.44%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -5.59% / Under gap -0.44%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap -1.66%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -3.90% / Under gap -3.55%
No Play
Model O 46.1% | U 53.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.7
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.89
Strongest Gap No Play -0.91%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -5.11% / Under gap -0.91%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -4.15% / Under gap -2.63%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -3.14% / Under gap -2.87%
No Play
Model O 51.4% | U 48.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.2
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs TOR | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap No Play -1.54%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -1.54% / Under gap -4.44%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -1.90% / Under gap -4.16%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -3.69% / Under gap -3.01%
No Play
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.