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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-05 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-05
139 matched props 71 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-06 Older: 2026-07-04

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 139
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 71
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-05 | Raw sportsbook rows: 139 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-05/strikeout_edges_2026-07-05.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.74
Strongest Gap Under +32.87%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -38.89% / Under gap +32.87%
Under +32.87%
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -35.69% / Under gap +29.71%
Under +29.71%
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -35.69% / Under gap +29.71%
Under +29.71%
FanDuel
8.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -14.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -23.98% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +130 / U --
Over gap -32.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -43.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -45.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -49.01% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 10.6% | U 89.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.5
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.80
Strongest Gap Under +19.66%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -27.11% / Under gap +19.66%
Under +19.66%
DraftKings
6.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -24.73% / Under gap +18.78%
Under +18.78%
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -23.41% / Under gap +17.43%
Under +17.43%
Model O 22.9% | U 77.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.2
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs CHC | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.46
Strongest Gap Under +16.87%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -23.65% / Under gap +16.87%
Under +16.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -17.48% / Under gap +11.49%
Under +11.49%
FanDuel
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -17.48% / Under gap +11.49%
Under +11.49%
DraftKings
4.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap -17.27% / Under gap +11.34%
Under +11.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -6.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -11.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -21.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -22.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.6% | U 72.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.1
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.56
Strongest Gap Under +13.60%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -19.70% / Under gap +13.60%
Under +13.60%
BetMGM
3.5
O -190 / U +140
Over gap -19.10% / Under gap +11.91%
Under +11.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -16.98% / Under gap +11.00%
Under +11.00%
Model O 29.3% | U 70.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 16.1
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs MIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap Under +12.77%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -19.88% / Under gap +12.77%
Under +12.77%
DraftKings
5.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +11.30%
Under +11.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -16.10% / Under gap +10.09%
Under +10.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -16.10% / Under gap +10.09%
Under +10.09%
FanDuel
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -5.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -12.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -17.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -18.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.5% | U 61.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.3
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs DET | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +11.98%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -18.97% / Under gap +11.98%
Under +11.98%
DraftKings
4.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -16.11% / Under gap +10.04%
Under +10.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +7.93%
Under +7.93%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +7.93%
Under +7.93%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -2.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -5.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -9.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -13.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -15.74% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.6% | U 57.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.8
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs TOR | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.01
Strongest Gap Under +9.74%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -15.84% / Under gap +9.74%
Under +9.74%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -15.84% / Under gap +9.74%
Under +9.74%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -16.28% / Under gap +9.30%
Under +9.30%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -14.71% / Under gap +8.66%
Under +8.66%
FanDuel
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -4.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -10.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -16.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -19.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.2% | U 62.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.8
Casey Mize headshot

Casey Mize
DET vs TEX | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.62
Strongest Gap Under +9.32%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -15.38% / Under gap +9.32%
Under +9.32%
FanDuel
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -2.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -4.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -9.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -13.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -16.66% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.6% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.6
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs BAL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.47
Strongest Gap Under +9.17%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -16.16% / Under gap +9.17%
Under +9.17%
DraftKings
5.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -9.57% / Under gap +3.40%
Under +3.40%
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -9.17% / Under gap +3.16%
Under +3.16%
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -9.17% / Under gap +3.16%
Under +3.16%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +1.53% / Under gap --
Over +1.53%
FanDuel
7.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -1.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +180 / U --
Over gap -3.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -9.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -12.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -13.22% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.4% | U 54.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.6
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.04
Strongest Gap Under +8.07%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -14.14% / Under gap +8.07%
Under +8.07%
FanDuel
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -13.27% / Under gap +7.17%
Under +7.17%
FanDuel
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -13.27% / Under gap +7.17%
Under +7.17%
BetMGM
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -12.60% / Under gap +5.67%
Under +5.67%
FanDuel
8.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -1.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap -5.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -14.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -17.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -18.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.8% | U 60.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.2
Jp Sears headshot

Jp Sears
SD vs LAD | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 3.92
Strongest Gap Under +6.73%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -12.90% / Under gap +6.73%
Under +6.73%
FanDuel
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -3.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -7.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -16.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -18.33% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.6% | U 64.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.3
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs SF | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.89
Strongest Gap Over +6.54%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +6.54% / Under gap --
Over +6.54%
FanDuel
5.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +6.31% / Under gap --
Over +6.31%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +3.06% / Under gap -9.08%
Over +3.06%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +3.06% / Under gap -9.08%
Over +3.06%
DraftKings
3.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +2.56% / Under gap -8.70%
Over +2.56%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +1.34% / Under gap -8.12%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -1.26% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.1% | U 64.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.7
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
SF vs COL | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Over +6.34%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +6.34% / Under gap --
Over +6.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +6.10% / Under gap --
Over +6.10%
FanDuel
4.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap +3.92% / Under gap --
Over +3.92%
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -0.69% / Under gap -5.39%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -3.55% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.1% | U 70.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.00
Strongest Gap Under +6.21%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -13.14% / Under gap +6.21%
Under +6.21%
DraftKings
6.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -11.74% / Under gap +5.81%
Under +5.81%
FanDuel
6.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -9.78% / Under gap +3.86%
Under +3.86%
FanDuel
6.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -9.78% / Under gap +3.86%
Under +3.86%
FanDuel
8.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -0.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -4.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -13.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -14.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -16.05% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.2% | U 60.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.5
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs CWS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap Over +5.50%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +5.50% / Under gap --
Over +5.50%
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +4.93% / Under gap --
Over +4.93%
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap +2.25% / Under gap --
Over +2.25%
DraftKings
4.5
O -151 / U +117
Over gap -4.73% / Under gap -1.51%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -2.55% / Under gap -3.51%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -2.55% / Under gap -3.51%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -2.90% / Under gap -4.21%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -6.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -6.07% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.3% | U 82.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs MIL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Over +5.41%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +5.41% / Under gap --
Over +5.41%
FanDuel
5.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +5.05% / Under gap --
Over +5.05%
DraftKings
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +2.57% / Under gap -8.55%
Over +2.57%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap +1.79% / Under gap -7.97%
Over +1.79%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap +1.79% / Under gap -7.97%
Over +1.79%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -0.08% / Under gap -7.21%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -3.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -5.92% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.7% | U 80.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.8
Javier Assad headshot

Javier Assad
CHC vs STL | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 3.84
Strongest Gap Over +5.12%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap +5.12% / Under gap --
Over +5.12%
FanDuel
4.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +4.82% / Under gap --
Over +4.82%
FanDuel
3.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap +1.16% / Under gap -7.22%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -3.07% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.7% | U 79.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs KC | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.04
Strongest Gap Over +2.71%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +2.71% / Under gap --
Over +2.71%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -8.19% / Under gap +2.30%
Under +2.30%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -8.19% / Under gap +2.30%
Under +2.30%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +1.07% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -6.54% / Under gap +0.46%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -6.56% / Under gap -0.73%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap -2.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -9.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap -10.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.4% | U 83.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6
Emmet Sheehan headshot

Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs SD | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap Under +1.51%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -8.96% / Under gap +1.51%
Under +1.51%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +1.24% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -5.69% / Under gap -0.39%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -1.45% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -3.60% / Under gap -2.28%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -3.60% / Under gap -2.28%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -8.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -10.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -10.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.