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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-12 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-12
143 matched props 77 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-13 Older: 2026-07-11

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 143
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 77
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-12 | Raw sportsbook rows: 143 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-12/strikeout_edges_2026-07-12.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.77
Strongest Gap Under +24.69%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -30.75% / Under gap +24.69%
Under +24.69%
BetMGM
4.5
O -185 / U +135
Over gap -31.91% / Under gap +24.45%
Under +24.45%
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -28.33% / Under gap +22.27%
Under +22.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -28.33% / Under gap +22.27%
Under +22.27%
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -19.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -26.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -33.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -34.21% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.8% | U 80.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.4
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs HOU | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 5.83
Strongest Gap Over +17.67%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +17.67% / Under gap --
Over +17.67%
FanDuel
5.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap +16.79% / Under gap --
Over +16.79%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +10.25% / Under gap -16.18%
Over +10.25%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +10.25% / Under gap -16.18%
Over +10.25%
DraftKings
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap +6.87% / Under gap -12.82%
Over +6.87%
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap +4.51% / Under gap --
Over +4.51%
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -0.35% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.1
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs LAA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.68
Strongest Gap Under +16.39%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -23.50% / Under gap +16.39%
Under +16.39%
DraftKings
6.5
O -123 / U -103
Over gap -20.33% / Under gap +14.43%
Under +14.43%
FanDuel
6.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -18.66% / Under gap +12.56%
Under +12.56%
FanDuel
6.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -18.66% / Under gap +12.56%
Under +12.56%
FanDuel
8.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap -8.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -13.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -18.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -23.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -25.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.8% | U 65.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.2
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs MIL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.95
Strongest Gap Under +15.37%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -149 / U +117
Over gap -21.29% / Under gap +15.37%
Under +15.37%
FanDuel
6.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -18.35% / Under gap +12.43%
Under +12.43%
FanDuel
6.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -18.35% / Under gap +12.43%
Under +12.43%
BetMGM
6.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -14.94% / Under gap +7.96%
Under +7.96%
FanDuel
8.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -7.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -13.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -17.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -22.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -24.49% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.6% | U 61.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.4
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs TB | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.76
Strongest Gap Under +7.99%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -15.95% / Under gap +7.99%
Under +7.99%
DraftKings
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -12.22% / Under gap +6.23%
Under +6.23%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -11.81% / Under gap +5.93%
Under +5.93%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -11.81% / Under gap +5.93%
Under +5.93%
FanDuel
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -3.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -6.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -16.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -17.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.0
Tarik Skubal headshot

Tarik Skubal
DET vs PHI | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 6.93
Strongest Gap Under +7.85%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +7.85%
Under +7.85%
FanDuel
8.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -9.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -18.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -20.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -20.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.0
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs CHC | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap Under +7.63%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -14.56% / Under gap +7.63%
Under +7.63%
DraftKings
4.5
O -101 / U -126
Over gap -10.26% / Under gap +4.26%
Under +4.26%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -8.55% / Under gap +2.38%
Under +2.38%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -8.55% / Under gap +2.38%
Under +2.38%
FanDuel
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -0.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -2.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -12.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -12.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.9
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
STL vs ATL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Under +7.26%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +7.26%
Under +7.26%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +7.26%
Under +7.26%
DraftKings
4.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap -13.01% / Under gap +7.01%
Under +7.01%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -2.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -5.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -9.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -14.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -17.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.7
Emmet Sheehan headshot

Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs AZ | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.97
Strongest Gap Under +7.21%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -13.14% / Under gap +7.21%
Under +7.21%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -12.66% / Under gap +6.60%
Under +6.60%
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -12.16% / Under gap +6.02%
Under +6.02%
FanDuel
7.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -3.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -8.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -13.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -18.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -19.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.8% | U 62.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.2
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs DET | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 6.81
Strongest Gap Under +6.26%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -12.40% / Under gap +6.26%
Under +6.26%
FanDuel
7.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -12.40% / Under gap +6.26%
Under +6.26%
DraftKings
7.5
O +110 / U -139
Over gap -10.02% / Under gap +4.24%
Under +4.24%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -10.02% / Under gap +2.40%
Under +2.40%
FanDuel
8.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -7.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -18.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -19.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -20.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 81.6
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs WSH | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Over +4.32%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +4.32% / Under gap --
Over +4.32%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +3.69% / Under gap --
Over +3.69%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap +0.43% / Under gap -8.39%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -1.29% / Under gap -4.77%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -1.77% / Under gap -4.16%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -1.77% / Under gap -4.16%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -6.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -7.18% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.9% | U 78.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.5
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs CWS | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.69
Strongest Gap Over +4.23%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +4.23% / Under gap --
Over +4.23%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +3.23% / Under gap --
Over +3.23%
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -7.80% / Under gap +0.06%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.78% / Under gap -5.24%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.78% / Under gap -5.24%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -4.11% / Under gap -1.99%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -5.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -6.47% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.5% | U 78.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.7
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs MIA | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.06
Strongest Gap Over +2.92%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +2.92% / Under gap --
Over +2.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -8.43% / Under gap +2.37%
Under +2.37%
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -8.43% / Under gap +2.37%
Under +2.37%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +1.34% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +128 / U -163
Over gap -4.65% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -2.81% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -4.65% / Under gap -3.31%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -8.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap -9.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.6% | U 83.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.1
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs MIN | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.63
Strongest Gap Over +2.67%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +2.67% / Under gap -8.66%
Over +2.67%
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +2.27% / Under gap -9.26%
Over +2.27%
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +0.99% / Under gap -7.07%
No Play
Model O 47.7% | U 52.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.1
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs SF | 6 books
Lean
Adj K 3.97
Strongest Gap Over +2.62%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +2.62% / Under gap --
Over +2.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O +180 / U --
Over gap +0.80% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -151 / U +119
Over gap -6.18% / Under gap +0.36%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -4.35% / Under gap -1.60%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -4.35% / Under gap -1.60%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -6.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.6% | U 77.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs BAL | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Over +2.34%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +2.34% / Under gap --
Over +2.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap +1.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -5.25% / Under gap -0.92%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -5.25% / Under gap -0.92%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -133 / U +104
Over gap -4.70% / Under gap -1.40%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -1.69% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -2.17% / Under gap -4.76%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -9.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -9.62% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.2% | U 84.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.4
Cristian Javier headshot

Cristian Javier
HOU vs TEX | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 3.39
Strongest Gap Under +1.94%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -7.87% / Under gap +1.94%
Under +1.94%
FanDuel
5.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -0.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -3.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -11.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs SD | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 5.56
Strongest Gap Over +1.80%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +1.80% / Under gap --
Over +1.80%
DraftKings
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -5.91% / Under gap -0.19%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -1.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -1.65%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -1.65%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -9.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -10.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -11.60% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.2% | U 77.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.6
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs KC | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap Over +1.59%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +1.59% / Under gap --
Over +1.59%
DraftKings
5.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -7.52% / Under gap +1.54%
Under +1.54%
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap -0.55%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap -0.55%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -0.57% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -6.54% / Under gap -1.08%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -178 / U --
Over gap -10.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -10.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.9% | U 84.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.