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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-11 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-11
129 matched props 90 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-12 Older: 2026-07-10

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 129
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 90
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-11 | Raw sportsbook rows: 129 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-11/strikeout_edges_2026-07-11.json
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs LAA | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 6.41
Strongest Gap Under +18.63%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -25.74% / Under gap +18.63%
Under +18.63%
FanDuel
7.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -22.97% / Under gap +16.91%
Under +16.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -22.97% / Under gap +16.91%
Under +16.91%
DraftKings
7.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -21.96% / Under gap +15.95%
Under +15.95%
FanDuel
8.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap -17.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -22.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -27.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -28.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.6% | U 67.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.5
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs ATL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.79
Strongest Gap Under +16.40%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap -22.40% / Under gap +16.40%
Under +16.40%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -19.70% / Under gap +13.60%
Under +13.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -19.70% / Under gap +13.60%
Under +13.60%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -16.65% / Under gap +9.20%
Under +9.20%
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -7.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -13.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -18.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -21.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.4% | U 66.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.6
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs BAL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +13.47%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +13.47%
Under +13.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +13.47%
Under +13.47%
DraftKings
5.5
O +116 / U -149
Over gap -18.45% / Under gap +12.31%
Under +12.31%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -16.59% / Under gap +9.89%
Under +9.89%
FanDuel
7.5
O +460 / U --
Over gap -8.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -13.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -17.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -23.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -24.64% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.9% | U 72.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.5
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.98
Strongest Gap Under +13.42%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -19.37% / Under gap +13.42%
Under +13.42%
FanDuel
6.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -19.02% / Under gap +12.96%
Under +12.96%
BetMGM
6.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -16.60% / Under gap +9.82%
Under +9.82%
Model O 39.0% | U 61.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.9
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs SF | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.70
Strongest Gap Under +10.42%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +108 / U -137
Over gap -16.31% / Under gap +10.42%
Under +10.42%
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -16.31% / Under gap +10.25%
Under +10.25%
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -16.31% / Under gap +10.25%
Under +10.25%
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +8.23%
Under +8.23%
FanDuel
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -5.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -10.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -18.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -20.15% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.7
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs LAD | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.29
Strongest Gap Over +8.17%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap +8.17% / Under gap -14.14%
Over +8.17%
FanDuel
3.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +7.93% / Under gap -13.94%
Over +7.93%
Model O 59.4% | U 40.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.3
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs KC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.78
Strongest Gap Over +8.15%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +8.15% / Under gap --
Over +8.15%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +6.80% / Under gap --
Over +6.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +2.70% / Under gap -8.55%
Over +2.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +2.70% / Under gap -8.55%
Over +2.70%
DraftKings
5.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap +1.56% / Under gap -7.50%
Over +1.56%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +1.09% / Under gap -8.20%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -2.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -5.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -6.28% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.8% | U 75.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.7
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
SF vs COL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Under +7.56%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +118 / U -148
Over gap -13.11% / Under gap +7.56%
Under +7.56%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -3.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -7.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -14.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -194 / U --
Over gap -18.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -18.57% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7
Javier Assad headshot

Javier Assad
CHC vs CIN | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +7.43%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -13.51% / Under gap +7.43%
Under +7.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -3.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -9.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -13.89% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.6
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.51
Strongest Gap Under +7.37%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -13.39% / Under gap +7.37%
Under +7.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap +5.52%
Under +5.52%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -11.99% / Under gap +4.54%
Under +4.54%
Model O 45.5% | U 54.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.4
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs AZ | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.62
Strongest Gap Under +6.77%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -12.90% / Under gap +6.77%
Under +6.77%
FanDuel
5.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -12.43% / Under gap +6.56%
Under +6.56%
Model O 47.6% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.3
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs WSH | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.52
Strongest Gap Under +6.44%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -12.43% / Under gap +6.44%
Under +6.44%
BetMGM
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -12.83% / Under gap +5.84%
Under +5.84%
FanDuel
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -10.79% / Under gap +4.87%
Under +4.87%
FanDuel
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -10.79% / Under gap +4.87%
Under +4.87%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +0.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -2.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -7.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -9.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -14.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -16.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.6% | U 67.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.6
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs BOS | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 6.02
Strongest Gap Over +5.67%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +5.67% / Under gap --
Over +5.67%
FanDuel
7.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +5.01% / Under gap --
Over +5.01%
FanDuel
6.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap +2.20% / Under gap --
Over +2.20%
DraftKings
5.5
O -133 / U +104
Over gap -3.87% / Under gap -2.23%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -3.31% / Under gap -2.71%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -3.31% / Under gap -2.71%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -4.24% / Under gap -3.21%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -6.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -7.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -7.92% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.5% | U 81.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.6
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs MIA | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.04
Strongest Gap Over +5.66%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +5.66% / Under gap --
Over +5.66%
FanDuel
5.5
O +180 / U --
Over gap +3.20% / Under gap --
Over +3.20%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +1.84% / Under gap -8.77%
Over +1.84%
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -1.34% / Under gap -4.72%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -1.34% / Under gap -4.72%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -127 / U +100
Over gap -1.73% / Under gap -4.22%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -5.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -6.68% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.1% | U 73.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.9
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs CHC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.22
Strongest Gap Over +5.53%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +5.53% / Under gap --
Over +5.53%
FanDuel
6.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap +5.25% / Under gap --
Over +5.25%
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +2.28% / Under gap --
Over +2.28%
DraftKings
4.5
O -163 / U +127
Over gap -5.07% / Under gap -0.96%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -5.97% / Under gap -1.65%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -2.77% / Under gap -3.21%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -2.77% / Under gap -3.21%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -7.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -7.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.4% | U 81.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.8
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs HOU | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap Under +5.31%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -12.29% / Under gap +5.31%
Under +5.31%
DraftKings
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -7.34% / Under gap +1.17%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -6.42% / Under gap +0.47%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -6.42% / Under gap +0.47%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -0.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -2.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -10.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -11.58% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.6
Casey Mize headshot

Casey Mize
DET vs PHI | 6 books
Play
Adj K 4.98
Strongest Gap Under +4.03%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -10.09% / Under gap +4.03%
Under +4.03%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -0.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -4.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -12.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -14.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -14.70% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.0% | U 62.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.3
Miles Mikolas headshot

Miles Mikolas
WSH vs NYY | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.56
Strongest Gap Under +2.12%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -8.13% / Under gap +2.12%
Under +2.12%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -6.19% / Under gap +0.09%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -6.19% / Under gap +0.09%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -1.31% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -3.58% / Under gap -3.87%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -4.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -10.54% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.4% | U 53.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.9
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs TB | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 6.00
Strongest Gap Over +1.62%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +1.62% / Under gap --
Over +1.62%
DraftKings
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -6.42% / Under gap +0.34%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -1.07% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -5.20% / Under gap -1.50%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -3.86% / Under gap -2.20%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -3.86% / Under gap -2.20%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -11.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -12.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -13.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.3% | U 81.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.