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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-04 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-04
126 matched props 26 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-05 Older: 2026-07-03

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 126
Grouped Pitchers 23
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 26
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-04 | Raw sportsbook rows: 126 | Grouped pitcher entries: 23 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-04/strikeout_edges_2026-07-04.json
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs HOU | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 3.97
Strongest Gap Under +31.30%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -150 / U +117
Over gap -37.38% / Under gap +31.30%
Under +31.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -35.71% / Under gap +29.76%
Under +29.76%
FanDuel
5.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -35.71% / Under gap +29.76%
Under +29.76%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -34.83% / Under gap +27.38%
Under +27.38%
FanDuel
8.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -9.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -16.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -25.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -25.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -36.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -40.23% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.6% | U 77.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs CLE | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 3.81
Strongest Gap Under +27.08%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -33.18% / Under gap +27.08%
Under +27.08%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -33.18% / Under gap +27.08%
Under +27.08%
DraftKings
5.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -32.74% / Under gap +26.64%
Under +26.64%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -30.91% / Under gap +24.13%
Under +24.13%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -8.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -16.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -24.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -27.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -37.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -40.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.3% | U 79.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.1
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Under +22.04%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -28.14% / Under gap +22.04%
Under +22.04%
BetMGM
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -25.53% / Under gap +18.08%
Under +18.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -24.07% / Under gap +17.90%
Under +17.90%
Model O 24.5% | U 75.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 77.5
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.63
Strongest Gap Under +21.38%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -137 / U +108
Over gap -27.27% / Under gap +21.38%
Under +21.38%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -26.36% / Under gap +20.44%
Under +20.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -26.36% / Under gap +20.44%
Under +20.44%
BetMGM
5.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -25.67% / Under gap +18.55%
Under +18.55%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -6.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -12.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -20.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -24.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -30.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.5% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.6
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.27
Strongest Gap Over +13.06%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap +13.06% / Under gap -20.18%
Over +13.06%
FanDuel
7.5
O +460 / U --
Over gap +12.98% / Under gap --
Over +12.98%
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +11.66% / Under gap --
Over +11.66%
DraftKings
5.5
O +103 / U -132
Over gap +7.28% / Under gap -13.44%
Over +7.28%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap +6.04% / Under gap -12.10%
Over +6.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap +6.04% / Under gap -12.10%
Over +6.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap +0.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -3.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -4.95% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 56.5% | U 43.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.0
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs DET | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +12.38%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -18.37% / Under gap +12.38%
Under +12.38%
FanDuel
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -18.37% / Under gap +12.38%
Under +12.38%
DraftKings
5.5
O +126 / U -161
Over gap -16.40% / Under gap +10.46%
Under +10.46%
BetMGM
5.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -15.63% / Under gap +8.51%
Under +8.51%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -4.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -7.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -12.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -14.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -18.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.6% | U 57.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.8
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.61
Strongest Gap Under +11.42%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -17.52% / Under gap +11.42%
Under +11.42%
BetMGM
7.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap -17.29% / Under gap +10.78%
Under +10.78%
FanDuel
7.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -15.89% / Under gap +9.96%
Under +9.96%
Model O 35.1% | U 64.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.8
Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell
WSH vs PIT | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.09
Strongest Gap Over +10.04%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +10.04% / Under gap --
Over +10.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +9.24% / Under gap --
Over +9.24%
DraftKings
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +7.04% / Under gap -12.96%
Over +7.04%
FanDuel
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +7.04% / Under gap -12.96%
Over +7.04%
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +6.56% / Under gap -12.58%
Over +6.56%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +4.84% / Under gap -11.62%
Over +4.84%
FanDuel
2.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap +1.51% / Under gap --
Over +1.51%
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.3
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs KC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.79
Strongest Gap Under +8.09%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -14.87% / Under gap +8.09%
Under +8.09%
FanDuel
6.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -12.67% / Under gap +6.75%
Under +6.75%
DraftKings
6.5
O +111 / U -142
Over gap -11.04% / Under gap +4.97%
Under +4.97%
Model O 36.4% | U 63.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.2
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.87
Strongest Gap Under +7.39%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -103 / U -123
Over gap -13.29% / Under gap +7.39%
Under +7.39%
FanDuel
6.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -8.42% / Under gap +2.55%
Under +2.55%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -10.17% / Under gap +2.55%
Under +2.55%
Model O 37.5% | U 62.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.3
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Under +5.56%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -11.62% / Under gap +5.56%
Under +5.56%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +3.54%
Under +3.54%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +3.54%
Under +3.54%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap +2.80%
Under +2.80%
FanDuel
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -3.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -6.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -12.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -16.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -16.50% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.8
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs MIL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap Over +4.70%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap +4.70% / Under gap -12.66%
Over +4.70%
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +2.94% / Under gap -8.93%
Over +2.94%
DraftKings
3.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap +2.64% / Under gap -8.52%
Over +2.64%
Model O 63.9% | U 36.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.7
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs SF | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.50
Strongest Gap Over +4.56%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap +4.56% / Under gap -10.64%
Over +4.56%
BetMGM
2.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +3.65% / Under gap -10.64%
Over +3.65%
DraftKings
2.5
O -179 / U +140
Over gap +1.03% / Under gap -6.86%
No Play
Model O 65.2% | U 34.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.1
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs TB | 6 books
Play
Adj K 6.23
Strongest Gap Over +4.52%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +4.52% / Under gap --
Over +4.52%
FanDuel
7.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap +2.17% / Under gap --
Over +2.17%
FanDuel
6.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -1.88% / Under gap -4.20%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -174 / U --
Over gap -7.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -9.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -10.06% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.6% | U 79.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.7
Griffin Canning headshot

Griffin Canning
SD vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.89
Strongest Gap Under +4.26%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -10.34% / Under gap +4.26%
Under +4.26%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -9.70% / Under gap +3.00%
Under +3.00%
DraftKings
4.5
O +127 / U -163
Over gap -8.94% / Under gap +2.91%
Under +2.91%
Model O 35.1% | U 64.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.1
Jack Flaherty headshot

Jack Flaherty
DET vs TEX | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.51
Strongest Gap Under +4.03%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -11.48% / Under gap +4.03%
Under +4.03%
DraftKings
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -9.59% / Under gap +3.53%
Under +3.53%
FanDuel
7.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -7.08% / Under gap +0.98%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -7.08% / Under gap +0.98%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap -1.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -9.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -11.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -11.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.0% | U 54.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.7
Shane Bieber headshot

Shane Bieber
TOR vs SEA | 6 books
Lean
Adj K 4.98
Strongest Gap Over +2.96%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +2.96% / Under gap --
Over +2.96%
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +1.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -7.32% / Under gap +1.24%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -2.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -8.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -10.16% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.8% | U 84.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.5
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs COL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.64
Strongest Gap Over +2.75%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +2.75% / Under gap -10.37%
Over +2.75%
DraftKings
4.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap +2.43% / Under gap -8.41%
Over +2.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap +0.63% / Under gap -6.61%
No Play
Model O 62.7% | U 37.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.0
Hunter Greene headshot

Hunter Greene
CIN vs BAL | 6 books
Lean
Adj K 6.45
Strongest Gap Under +2.08%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -8.18% / Under gap +2.08%
Under +2.08%
FanDuel
8.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -0.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -5.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -10.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -13.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -13.80% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.3
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs STL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.32
Strongest Gap Over +1.83%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap +1.83% / Under gap -9.57%
Over +1.83%
FanDuel
4.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -1.65% / Under gap -4.22%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -163 / U +127
Over gap -3.63% / Under gap -2.40%
No Play
Model O 58.4% | U 41.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.9
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.10
Strongest Gap No Play +0.58%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +0.58% / Under gap -7.51%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -145 / U +114
Over gap -4.05% / Under gap -1.86%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap -3.67%
No Play
Model O 55.1% | U 44.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.8
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.91
Strongest Gap No Play -0.39%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -0.39% / Under gap -5.71%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -0.61% / Under gap -5.49%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -5.23% / Under gap -2.22%
No Play
Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.4
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs ATL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.84
Strongest Gap No Play -1.86%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap -4.24% / Under gap -1.86%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -3.83% / Under gap -2.10%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -2.37% / Under gap -4.61%
No Play
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.