{ "date": "2026-07-05", "generated_at": "2026-07-05T08:06:22.725996", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-05", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 210, "matched_count": 139, "unmatched_count": 71 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 139, "grouped_pitcher_count": 19, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 139, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:29.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1061, "model_under_probability": 0.8939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.3889, "edge_under": 0.3287, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3287, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1061, "model_under_probability": 0.8939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.3569, "edge_under": 0.2971, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2971, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1061, "model_under_probability": 0.8939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.3569, "edge_under": 0.2971, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2971, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:56:34.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2289, "model_under_probability": 0.7711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.2711, "edge_under": 0.1966, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1966, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:46.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2289, "model_under_probability": 0.7711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.2473, "edge_under": 0.1878, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1878, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2289, "model_under_probability": 0.7711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.2341, "edge_under": 0.1743, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1743, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.129, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:09.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2757, "model_under_probability": 0.7243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.2365, "edge_under": 0.1687, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1687, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:12.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2932, "model_under_probability": 0.7068, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.462, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.538, "edge_over": -0.197, "edge_under": 0.136, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.136, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3845, "model_under_probability": 0.6155, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1988, "edge_under": 0.1277, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1277, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:09.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1897, "edge_under": 0.1198, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1198, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:47.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -190, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4642, "model_under_probability": 0.5358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6552, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6113, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3887, "edge_over": -0.191, "edge_under": 0.1191, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1191, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2757, "model_under_probability": 0.7243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.1748, "edge_under": 0.1149, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1149, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2757, "model_under_probability": 0.7243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.1748, "edge_under": 0.1149, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1149, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:41.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 123, "under_odds": -157, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2757, "model_under_probability": 0.7243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4233, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5767, "edge_over": -0.1727, "edge_under": 0.1134, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1134, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:29.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3845, "model_under_probability": 0.6155, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5259, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4741, "edge_over": -0.173, "edge_under": 0.113, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.113, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2932, "model_under_probability": 0.7068, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.1698, "edge_under": 0.11, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.11, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3845, "model_under_probability": 0.6155, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.161, "edge_under": 0.1009, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1009, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3845, "model_under_probability": 0.6155, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.161, "edge_under": 0.1009, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1009, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:25.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5532, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4468, "edge_over": -0.1611, "edge_under": 0.1004, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1004, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1584, "edge_under": 0.0974, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0974, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1584, "edge_under": 0.0974, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0974, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4758, "model_under_probability": 0.5242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.1538, "edge_under": 0.0932, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0932, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1628, "edge_under": 0.093, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.093, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:14.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1616, "edge_under": 0.0917, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0917, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:41.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4896, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5104, "edge_over": -0.1471, "edge_under": 0.0866, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0866, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:29.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -117, "under_odds": -109, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5392, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5215, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5083, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4917, "edge_over": -0.1414, "edge_under": 0.0807, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0807, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.1395, "edge_under": 0.0793, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0793, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.1395, "edge_under": 0.0793, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0793, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1327, "edge_under": 0.0717, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1327, "edge_under": 0.0717, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3564, "model_under_probability": 0.6436, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.129, "edge_under": 0.0673, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0673, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0654, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0654, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2907, "model_under_probability": 0.7093, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0634, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0634, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2146, "model_under_probability": 0.7854, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0631, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0631, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:14.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1314, "edge_under": 0.0621, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0621, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1786, "model_under_probability": 0.8214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.061, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.061, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:24.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1174, "edge_under": 0.0581, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0581, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.126, "edge_under": 0.0567, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0567, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1726, "model_under_probability": 0.8274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.055, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.055, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.197, "model_under_probability": 0.803, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0541, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0541, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2074, "model_under_probability": 0.7926, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0512, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.076, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3137, "model_under_probability": 0.6863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0505, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0505, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2715, "model_under_probability": 0.7285, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0493, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0493, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3423, "model_under_probability": 0.6577, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0482, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0482, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.076, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 150, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4392, "model_under_probability": 0.5608, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0392, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.0978, "edge_under": 0.0386, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0386, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.0978, "edge_under": 0.0386, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0386, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:24.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5176, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4824, "edge_over": -0.0957, "edge_under": 0.034, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.0917, "edge_under": 0.0316, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0316, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.0917, "edge_under": 0.0316, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0316, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0306, "edge_under": -0.0908, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0306, "edge_under": -0.0908, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0271, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0271, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:25.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -164, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5861, "edge_over": 0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0855, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0257, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": 0.0256, "edge_under": -0.087, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0256, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": -0.0819, "edge_under": 0.023, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.023, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": -0.0819, "edge_under": 0.023, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.023, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4013, "model_under_probability": 0.5987, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0225, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0225, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": 0.0179, "edge_under": -0.0797, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0179, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": 0.0179, "edge_under": -0.0797, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0179, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1329, "model_under_probability": 0.8671, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0153, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4104, "model_under_probability": 0.5896, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0896, "edge_under": 0.0151, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:58:09.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0134, "edge_under": -0.0812, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1791, "model_under_probability": 0.8209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0124, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0124, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5166, "model_under_probability": 0.4834, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": 0.0116, "edge_under": -0.0722, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0116, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.076, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2607, "model_under_probability": 0.7393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0107, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0107, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:37.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3891, "model_under_probability": 0.6109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.0654, "edge_under": 0.0046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0046, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:32.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0008, "edge_under": -0.0721, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0008, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:56:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4104, "model_under_probability": 0.5896, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.0569, "edge_under": -0.0039, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0039, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.0069, "edge_under": -0.0539, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0069, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:39.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.0656, "edge_under": -0.0073, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0073, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1829, "model_under_probability": 0.8171, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0094, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0094, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2117, "model_under_probability": 0.7883, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0105, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0105, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 30.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7134, "model_under_probability": 0.2866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0126, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0126, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2796, "model_under_probability": 0.7204, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:56:33.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 117, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5543, "model_under_probability": 0.4457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5663, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4337, "edge_over": -0.0473, "edge_under": -0.0151, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1223, "model_under_probability": 0.8777, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0206, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0206, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0959, "model_under_probability": 0.9041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0217, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0217, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4104, "model_under_probability": 0.5896, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.036, "edge_under": -0.0228, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0228, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4104, "model_under_probability": 0.5896, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.036, "edge_under": -0.0228, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0228, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 142, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3891, "model_under_probability": 0.6109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4132, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0241, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0241, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5543, "model_under_probability": 0.4457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": -0.0351, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:56.621Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5543, "model_under_probability": 0.4457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": -0.0351, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5543, "model_under_probability": 0.4457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.029, "edge_under": -0.0421, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7061, "model_under_probability": 0.2939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0307, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0307, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.076, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7793, "model_under_probability": 0.2207, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0355, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0355, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1243, "model_under_probability": 0.8757, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.037, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.037, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 180, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3193, "model_under_probability": 0.6807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0378, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0378, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6343, "model_under_probability": 0.3657, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0378, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0378, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.275, "model_under_probability": 0.725, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0425, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0425, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2058, "model_under_probability": 0.7942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0442, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0442, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1338, "model_under_probability": 0.8662, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.048, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.048, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1609, "model_under_probability": 0.8391, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0519, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0519, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0532, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0532, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 196, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2799, "model_under_probability": 0.7201, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3378, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0579, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0579, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 79.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7959, "model_under_probability": 0.2041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0592, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0592, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8488, "model_under_probability": 0.1512, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0603, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0603, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 44.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.712, "model_under_probability": 0.288, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0607, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0607, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0807, "model_under_probability": 0.9193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0622, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0622, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2189, "model_under_probability": 0.7811, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0752, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0752, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8536, "model_under_probability": 0.1464, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0876, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8423, "model_under_probability": 0.1577, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0932, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0932, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0946, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0946, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3245, "model_under_probability": 0.6755, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0957, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0957, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8745, "model_under_probability": 0.1255, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0977, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0977, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2567, "model_under_probability": 0.7433, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0979, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0979, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.232, "model_under_probability": 0.768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -410, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 39.7, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.702, "model_under_probability": 0.298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8039, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1019, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1035, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1035, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -480, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 43.0, "opportunity_score": 34.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7193, "model_under_probability": 0.2807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1083, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.021, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1555, "model_under_probability": 0.8445, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1185, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1185, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -720, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7524, "model_under_probability": 0.2476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1256, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1256, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8397, "model_under_probability": 0.1603, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.128, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.128, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.77, "model_under_probability": 0.23, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.13, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.13, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 19.5, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6046, "model_under_probability": 0.3954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1322, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1322, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8032, "model_under_probability": 0.1968, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1323, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1323, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8042, "model_under_probability": 0.1958, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.137, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0261, "model_under_probability": 0.9739, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1406, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1406, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5293, "model_under_probability": 0.4707, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1481, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1481, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8076, "model_under_probability": 0.1924, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1489, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1489, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5987, "model_under_probability": 0.4013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1574, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1574, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6728, "model_under_probability": 0.3272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1605, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1605, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7177, "model_under_probability": 0.2823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1647, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1647, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 64.8, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6447, "model_under_probability": 0.3553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1666, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1666, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7303, "model_under_probability": 0.2697, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1697, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1697, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -245, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5348, "model_under_probability": 0.4652, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1753, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1753, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -720, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6982, "model_under_probability": 0.3018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1798, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1798, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.531, "model_under_probability": 0.469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1833, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1833, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -620, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 51.7, "opportunity_score": 52.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 52.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6775, "model_under_probability": 0.3225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1836, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1836, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5377, "model_under_probability": 0.4623, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1883, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1883, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 25.7, "opportunity_score": 64.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.19, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.19, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.937, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.645, "model_under_probability": 0.355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2101, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2101, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 44.8, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 51.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2273, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2273, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0543, "model_under_probability": 0.9457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2398, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2398, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-05T11:57:23.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1061, "model_under_probability": 0.8939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3287, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3287, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4982, "model_under_probability": 0.5018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4351, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4351, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -188, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1933, "model_under_probability": 0.8067, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6528, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4595, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4595, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 51.0, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3247, "model_under_probability": 0.6753, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4901, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4901, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }