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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-10 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-10
113 matched props 54 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-11 Older: 2026-07-09

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 113
Grouped Pitchers 17
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 54
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-10 | Raw sportsbook rows: 113 | Grouped pitcher entries: 17 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-10/strikeout_edges_2026-07-10.json
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs ATH | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +27.51%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -159 / U +124
Over gap -33.54% / Under gap +27.51%
Under +27.51%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -31.50% / Under gap +25.42%
Under +25.42%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -31.50% / Under gap +25.42%
Under +25.42%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -29.60% / Under gap +22.15%
Under +22.15%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -8.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -14.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -20.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap -22.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -31.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -34.17% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.9% | U 72.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.5
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs NYM | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.85
Strongest Gap Under +16.84%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -22.86% / Under gap +16.84%
Under +16.84%
FanDuel
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -19.57% / Under gap +13.51%
Under +13.51%
FanDuel
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -19.57% / Under gap +13.51%
Under +13.51%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -18.56% / Under gap +11.63%
Under +11.63%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -5.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -9.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -15.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -15.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -22.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -24.91% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.9
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs KC | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.64
Strongest Gap Under +14.33%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -20.26% / Under gap +14.33%
Under +14.33%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -20.26% / Under gap +14.33%
Under +14.33%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -20.50% / Under gap +13.72%
Under +13.72%
DraftKings
4.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -19.53% / Under gap +13.33%
Under +13.33%
FanDuel
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -7.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -13.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -20.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -24.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.7% | U 69.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.1
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.65
Strongest Gap Under +9.12%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -172 / U +134
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +9.12%
Under +9.12%
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -13.55% / Under gap +6.85%
Under +6.85%
FanDuel
3.5
O -148 / U +114
Over gap -11.54% / Under gap +5.13%
Under +5.13%
Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.7
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs WSH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.66
Strongest Gap Under +8.61%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -15.72% / Under gap +8.61%
Under +8.61%
DraftKings
5.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -12.60% / Under gap +6.62%
Under +6.62%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -12.39% / Under gap +6.31%
Under +6.31%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -12.39% / Under gap +6.31%
Under +6.31%
FanDuel
7.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -3.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -6.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -13.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -16.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -17.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.1% | U 66.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.6
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.23
Strongest Gap Under +6.98%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -14.72% / Under gap +6.98%
Under +6.98%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -11.69% / Under gap +5.59%
Under +5.59%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -11.69% / Under gap +5.59%
Under +5.59%
DraftKings
5.5
O -111 / U -114
Over gap -10.81% / Under gap +4.93%
Under +4.93%
FanDuel
7.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -1.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -5.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -14.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -15.55% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.8% | U 58.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.5
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
SEA vs TB | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Over +6.70%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +6.70% / Under gap --
Over +6.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +6.16% / Under gap --
Over +6.16%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +1.75% / Under gap -7.89%
Over +1.75%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +1.75% / Under gap -7.89%
Over +1.75%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +1.75% / Under gap -9.20%
Over +1.75%
DraftKings
4.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -5.45%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -4.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.9% | U 76.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs CLE | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap Under +6.19%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -106 / U -121
Over gap -12.40% / Under gap +6.19%
Under +6.19%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap +5.38%
Under +5.38%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap +5.38%
Under +5.38%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -12.16% / Under gap +5.38%
Under +5.38%
FanDuel
7.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -2.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -5.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -12.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -15.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -16.35% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Jack Flaherty headshot

Jack Flaherty
DET vs PHI | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.90
Strongest Gap Over +5.54%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +5.54% / Under gap --
Over +5.54%
FanDuel
7.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +4.05% / Under gap --
Over +4.05%
FanDuel
6.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap +1.10% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -136 / U +107
Over gap -6.08% / Under gap +0.14%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -4.59% / Under gap -1.55%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -4.01% / Under gap -2.05%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -7.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -8.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -8.99% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -160 / U --
Over gap -9.99% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.3% | U 82.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.8
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs DET | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.29
Strongest Gap Under +3.81%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -10.79% / Under gap +3.81%
Under +3.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -8.28% / Under gap +2.35%
Under +2.35%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -7.80% / Under gap +1.74%
Under +1.74%
DraftKings
5.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -7.55% / Under gap +1.35%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap +0.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -2.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -9.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -12.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -12.88% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.2
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs SEA | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.07
Strongest Gap Under +2.39%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -8.47% / Under gap +2.39%
Under +2.39%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -8.47% / Under gap +2.39%
Under +2.39%
DraftKings
4.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -6.99% / Under gap +0.96%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -8.25% / Under gap +0.96%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -1.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -4.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -13.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -13.98% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.4
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs LAA | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.40
Strongest Gap Under +2.17%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -9.15% / Under gap +2.17%
Under +2.17%
DraftKings
5.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap -6.88% / Under gap +0.71%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -5.16% / Under gap -0.86%
No Play
Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.0
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs STL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 6.50
Strongest Gap Over +1.54%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap +1.54% / Under gap -7.52%
Over +1.54%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -0.52% / Under gap -7.10%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -2.64% / Under gap -3.34%
No Play
Model O 46.0% | U 54.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.9
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs COL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.89
Strongest Gap No Play +1.41%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +1.41% / Under gap -8.86%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -0.28% / Under gap -5.75%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -1.20% / Under gap -4.90%
No Play
Model O 51.4% | U 48.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.4
Hunter Greene headshot

Hunter Greene
CIN vs CHC | 6 books
No Play
Adj K 6.29
Strongest Gap No Play +1.28%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +1.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -6.82% / Under gap +0.68%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -2.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -13.27% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.3% | U 78.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.1
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap No Play -0.13%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -0.13% / Under gap -7.49%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -3.73% / Under gap -2.25%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +116 / U -149
Over gap -3.73% / Under gap -2.41%
No Play
Model O 59.9% | U 40.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.8
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs HOU | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 3.32
Strongest Gap No Play -0.65%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +136 / U -174
Over gap -0.65% / Under gap -5.22%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +131 / U -167
Over gap -1.57% / Under gap -4.27%
No Play
Model O 41.7% | U 58.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.