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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-06 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-06
70 matched props 32 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-07 Older: 2026-07-05

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 70
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 32
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-06 | Raw sportsbook rows: 70 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-06/strikeout_edges_2026-07-06.json
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs KC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.57
Strongest Gap Under +15.00%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -21.03% / Under gap +15.00%
Under +15.00%
FanDuel
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -19.74% / Under gap +13.64%
Under +13.64%
BetMGM
6.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -20.18% / Under gap +13.20%
Under +13.20%
Model O 33.3% | U 66.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.0
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.37
Strongest Gap Under +14.19%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -20.25% / Under gap +14.19%
Under +14.19%
DraftKings
3.5
O -163 / U +127
Over gap -19.27% / Under gap +13.24%
Under +13.24%
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -15.62% / Under gap +8.51%
Under +8.51%
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.9
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs ATL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.71
Strongest Gap Over +11.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +11.43% / Under gap --
Over +11.43%
FanDuel
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +11.16% / Under gap --
Over +11.16%
FanDuel
5.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap +8.87% / Under gap --
Over +8.87%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap +4.49% / Under gap -12.45%
Over +4.49%
FanDuel
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +2.73% / Under gap -8.72%
Over +2.73%
FanDuel
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +2.73% / Under gap -8.72%
Over +2.73%
DraftKings
4.5
O -165 / U +129
Over gap +1.41% / Under gap -7.34%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -1.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -4.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.2% | U 64.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.2
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Under +9.35%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -15.43% / Under gap +9.35%
Under +9.35%
DraftKings
4.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -14.93% / Under gap +8.91%
Under +8.91%
BetMGM
5.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap -13.48% / Under gap +6.02%
Under +6.02%
Model O 43.9% | U 56.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.7
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs PHI | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap Under +9.09%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +117 / U -150
Over gap -15.17% / Under gap +9.09%
Under +9.09%
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -14.07% / Under gap +6.45%
Under +6.45%
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -12.19% / Under gap +6.13%
Under +6.13%
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -11.83% / Under gap +5.85%
Under +5.85%
FanDuel
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -6.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -14.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -172 / U --
Over gap -17.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -18.50% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.9% | U 69.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.6
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.66
Strongest Gap Under +8.77%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +119 / U -151
Over gap -14.59% / Under gap +8.77%
Under +8.77%
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -12.79% / Under gap +6.81%
Under +6.81%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -13.21% / Under gap +6.22%
Under +6.22%
Model O 31.1% | U 68.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.9
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs TB | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.60
Strongest Gap Under +7.94%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -13.89% / Under gap +7.94%
Under +7.94%
FanDuel
6.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -13.89% / Under gap +7.94%
Under +7.94%
DraftKings
6.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -11.52% / Under gap +5.49%
Under +5.49%
BetMGM
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -11.72% / Under gap +4.73%
Under +4.73%
FanDuel
8.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -3.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -7.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -18.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -19.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -21.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.8
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.30
Strongest Gap Over +6.50%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +6.50% / Under gap -12.60%
Over +6.50%
DraftKings
3.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap +5.00% / Under gap -11.01%
Over +5.00%
BetMGM
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap +3.99% / Under gap -10.77%
Over +3.99%
Model O 59.6% | U 40.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.5
Mike Burrows headshot

Mike Burrows
HOU vs WSH | 7 books
Play
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Over +4.87%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +4.87% / Under gap --
Over +4.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +3.54% / Under gap --
Over +3.54%
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -2.48% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -2.48% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -166 / U +129
Over gap -3.35% / Under gap -2.73%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -3.74% / Under gap -3.25%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -4.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.1% | U 72.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.5
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
STL vs MIL | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.28
Strongest Gap Over +2.14%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +2.14% / Under gap --
Over +2.14%
FanDuel
5.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +0.92% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +120 / U -153
Over gap -3.57% / Under gap -2.35%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U --
Over gap -2.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -2.89% / Under gap -3.09%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -2.89% / Under gap -3.09%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -3.57% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -6.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.4% | U 83.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.0
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
LAD vs COL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Over +1.77%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +1.77% / Under gap -8.47%
Over +1.77%
DraftKings
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -2.41% / Under gap -3.61%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -2.41% / Under gap -3.61%
No Play
Model O 64.0% | U 36.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.2
Miles Mikolas headshot

Miles Mikolas
WSH vs HOU | 7 books
No Play
Adj K 3.39
Strongest Gap No Play +0.95%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +0.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +0.39% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -0.37% / Under gap -6.75%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -3.40% / Under gap -2.62%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -2.76% / Under gap -3.11%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -2.76% / Under gap -3.11%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -6.43% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 14.6% | U 85.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.1
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs SF | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.63
Strongest Gap No Play -0.82%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -0.82% / Under gap -5.35%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -1.06% / Under gap -6.05%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -2.78% / Under gap -3.28%
No Play
Model O 47.7% | U 52.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.