{ "date": "2026-07-04", "generated_at": "2026-07-04T08:06:50.897382", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-04", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 152, "matched_count": 126, "unmatched_count": 26 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 126, "grouped_pitcher_count": 23, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 126, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:18.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 117, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2262, "model_under_probability": 0.7738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5656, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4344, "edge_over": -0.3738, "edge_under": 0.313, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.313, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2262, "model_under_probability": 0.7738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.3571, "edge_under": 0.2976, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2976, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2262, "model_under_probability": 0.7738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.3571, "edge_under": 0.2976, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2976, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:47.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2262, "model_under_probability": 0.7738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.3483, "edge_under": 0.2738, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2738, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.3318, "edge_under": 0.2708, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2708, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.3318, "edge_under": 0.2708, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2708, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.3274, "edge_under": 0.2664, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2664, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:42.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.3091, "edge_under": 0.2413, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2413, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:46.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2814, "edge_under": 0.2204, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2204, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.62, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.145, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -137, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3054, "model_under_probability": 0.6946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5459, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4541, "edge_over": -0.2727, "edge_under": 0.2138, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2138, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3054, "model_under_probability": 0.6946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.2636, "edge_under": 0.2044, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2044, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3054, "model_under_probability": 0.6946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.2636, "edge_under": 0.2044, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2044, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:30.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1781, "model_under_probability": 0.8219, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.2567, "edge_under": 0.1855, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1855, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:02.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.2553, "edge_under": 0.1808, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1808, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.62, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.145, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 49.0, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.2407, "edge_under": 0.179, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.179, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.62, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.145, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:06.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5654, "model_under_probability": 0.4346, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": 0.1306, "edge_under": -0.2018, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1306, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3084, "model_under_probability": 0.6916, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1298, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1298, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": -0.1837, "edge_under": 0.1238, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1238, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": -0.1837, "edge_under": 0.1238, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1238, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1166, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1166, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:17.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.61, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3509, "model_under_probability": 0.6491, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1752, "edge_under": 0.1142, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1142, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:27.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.61, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3509, "model_under_probability": 0.6491, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4918, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5082, "edge_over": -0.1729, "edge_under": 0.1078, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1078, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -161, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4177, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5823, "edge_over": -0.164, "edge_under": 0.1046, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1046, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1004, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.61, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3509, "model_under_probability": 0.6491, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1589, "edge_under": 0.0996, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0996, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2439, "model_under_probability": 0.7561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0924, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0924, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.1563, "edge_under": 0.0851, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0851, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:33.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 63.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3635, "model_under_probability": 0.6365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1487, "edge_under": 0.0809, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0809, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:45.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -103, "under_odds": -123, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 35.7, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3745, "model_under_probability": 0.6255, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4791, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5209, "edge_over": -0.1329, "edge_under": 0.0739, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0739, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:50.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5654, "model_under_probability": 0.4346, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.536, "edge_over": 0.0728, "edge_under": -0.1344, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0728, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:13.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5606, "model_under_probability": 0.4394, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": -0.1296, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5606, "model_under_probability": 0.4394, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": -0.1296, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 63.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3635, "model_under_probability": 0.6365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.1267, "edge_under": 0.0675, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0675, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5606, "model_under_probability": 0.4394, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0656, "edge_under": -0.1258, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5654, "model_under_probability": 0.4346, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": 0.0604, "edge_under": -0.121, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0604, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5654, "model_under_probability": 0.4346, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": 0.0604, "edge_under": -0.121, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0604, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.1162, "edge_under": 0.0556, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0556, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:37.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 111, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 63.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3635, "model_under_probability": 0.6365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4468, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5532, "edge_over": -0.1104, "edge_under": 0.0497, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0497, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:15.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5606, "model_under_probability": 0.4394, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0484, "edge_under": -0.1162, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0484, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:05.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 71.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6388, "model_under_probability": 0.3612, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": 0.047, "edge_under": -0.1266, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.047, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6519, "model_under_probability": 0.3481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": 0.0456, "edge_under": -0.1064, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0456, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2065, "model_under_probability": 0.7935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0452, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 26.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1034, "edge_under": 0.0426, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0426, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4597, "model_under_probability": 0.5403, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.1148, "edge_under": 0.0403, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0403, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:31.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6519, "model_under_probability": 0.3481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": 0.0365, "edge_under": -0.1064, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0365, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0941, "edge_under": 0.0354, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0354, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0941, "edge_under": 0.0354, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0354, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4597, "model_under_probability": 0.5403, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0959, "edge_under": 0.0353, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0353, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:21.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 26.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": -0.097, "edge_under": 0.03, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.03, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1578, "model_under_probability": 0.8422, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0296, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0296, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 71.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6388, "model_under_probability": 0.3612, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": 0.0294, "edge_under": -0.0893, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0294, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 127, "under_odds": -163, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 26.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4154, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5846, "edge_over": -0.0894, "edge_under": 0.0291, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.0979, "edge_under": 0.028, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.028, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:31.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 67.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 26.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6275, "model_under_probability": 0.3725, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": 0.0275, "edge_under": -0.1037, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0275, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:06.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 71.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6388, "model_under_probability": 0.3612, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": 0.0264, "edge_under": -0.0852, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:21.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 35.7, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3745, "model_under_probability": 0.6255, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1017, "edge_under": 0.0255, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0255, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 35.7, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3745, "model_under_probability": 0.6255, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0842, "edge_under": 0.0255, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0255, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 67.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 26.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6275, "model_under_probability": 0.3725, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5692, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4308, "edge_over": 0.0243, "edge_under": -0.0841, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0243, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 255, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3034, "model_under_probability": 0.6966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0217, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0217, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "pitcher_id": 668881, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4531, "model_under_probability": 0.5469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.0818, "edge_under": 0.0208, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0208, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:24.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 44.5, "opportunity_score": 51.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": 0.0183, "edge_under": -0.0957, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7411, "model_under_probability": 0.2589, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 103.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2527, "model_under_probability": 0.7473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0146, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0146, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5331, "model_under_probability": 0.4669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.0732, "edge_under": 0.0124, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0124, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2163, "model_under_probability": 0.7837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0122, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0122, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -179, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6519, "model_under_probability": 0.3481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6416, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3937, "edge_over": 0.0103, "edge_under": -0.0686, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0103, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4597, "model_under_probability": 0.5403, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0708, "edge_under": 0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4597, "model_under_probability": 0.5403, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0708, "edge_under": 0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -164, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 67.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 26.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6275, "model_under_probability": 0.3725, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5861, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4139, "edge_over": 0.0063, "edge_under": -0.0661, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0063, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:20.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 71.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 15.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.0058, "edge_under": -0.0751, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0058, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7038, "model_under_probability": 0.2962, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7015, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0023, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 87.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 7.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0039, "edge_under": -0.0571, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0039, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 87.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 7.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.0061, "edge_under": -0.0549, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0061, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "pitcher_id": 668881, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2299, "model_under_probability": 0.7701, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0082, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0082, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 196, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3248, "model_under_probability": 0.6752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3378, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 44.5, "opportunity_score": 51.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": -0.0165, "edge_under": -0.0422, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 71.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 15.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5588, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4412, "edge_over": -0.0405, "edge_under": -0.0186, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:58:17.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -124, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 10.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 98.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5218, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4782, "edge_over": -0.0424, "edge_under": -0.0186, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4237, "model_under_probability": 0.5763, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": -0.0188, "edge_under": -0.042, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0188, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 10.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 98.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.0383, "edge_under": -0.021, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.021, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:33.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 87.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 7.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0523, "edge_under": -0.0222, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0222, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:27.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 10.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 98.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0237, "edge_under": -0.0461, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0237, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:52.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -163, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 44.5, "opportunity_score": 51.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5846, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4154, "edge_over": -0.0363, "edge_under": -0.024, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.024, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-04T11:57:59.327Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 71.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 15.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.025, "edge_under": -0.0367, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.025, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 146, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3799, "model_under_probability": 0.6201, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0266, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0266, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1475, "model_under_probability": 0.8525, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0343, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0343, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -620, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8265, "model_under_probability": 0.1735, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0346, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0346, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0959, "model_under_probability": 0.9041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0411, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0411, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.9182, "model_under_probability": 0.0818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0495, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0495, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "pitcher_id": 668881, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3309, "model_under_probability": 0.6691, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0508, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0508, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2394, "model_under_probability": 0.7606, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0636, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0636, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0479, "model_under_probability": 0.9521, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0697, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0697, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5602, "model_under_probability": 0.4398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0748, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0748, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0749, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0749, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8372, "model_under_probability": 0.1628, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0859, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0859, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0286, "model_under_probability": 0.9714, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.089, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.089, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8772, "model_under_probability": 0.1228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0905, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0905, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0348, "model_under_probability": 0.9652, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0934, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0934, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8234, "model_under_probability": 0.1766, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0997, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0997, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6994, "model_under_probability": 0.3006, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1006, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 39.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6943, "model_under_probability": 0.3057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7959, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1016, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1016, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "pitcher_id": 668881, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8401, "model_under_probability": 0.1599, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1073, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1073, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.61, "model_under_probability": 0.39, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.116, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.116, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 46.8, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 81.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7567, "model_under_probability": 0.2433, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1183, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1183, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0957, "model_under_probability": 0.9043, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1265, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1265, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 146, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.128, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.128, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8284, "model_under_probability": 0.1716, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1281, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1281, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "pitcher_id": 668881, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5885, "model_under_probability": 0.4115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1375, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1375, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene", "pitcher_id": 668881, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -620, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.45, "skill_score": 69.6, "opportunity_score": 64.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7231, "model_under_probability": 0.2769, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.138, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.138, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25253.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.77, "model_under_probability": 0.23, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1467, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1467, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6811, "model_under_probability": 0.3189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1602, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1602, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0586, "model_under_probability": 0.9414, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1636, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1636, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.165, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0692, "model_under_probability": 0.9308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1689, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1689, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 7.1, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5987, "model_under_probability": 0.4013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1839, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1839, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 95.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1781, "model_under_probability": 0.8219, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2036, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6735, "model_under_probability": 0.3265, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2432, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2432, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 176, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.113, "model_under_probability": 0.887, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3623, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2493, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2493, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1296, "model_under_probability": 0.8704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2521, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2521, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7248, "model_under_probability": 0.2752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2535, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2535, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7016, "model_under_probability": 0.2984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9756, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.274, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.274, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4776, "model_under_probability": 0.5224, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 83.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5398, "model_under_probability": 0.4602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3602, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3602, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -770, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5111, "model_under_probability": 0.4889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.374, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.374, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 20.3, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3651, "model_under_probability": 0.6349, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4023, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.81, "skill_score": 35.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3371, "model_under_probability": 0.6629, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7436, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4065, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4065, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Greene 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Sam Aldegheri", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Sam Aldegheri", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Sam Aldegheri", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }