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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-03 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-03
72 matched props 55 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-04 Older: 2026-07-02

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 72
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 55
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-03 | Raw sportsbook rows: 72 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-03/strikeout_edges_2026-07-03.json
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs CHC | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.18
Strongest Gap Under +13.93%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -19.78% / Under gap +13.93%
Under +13.93%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -19.78% / Under gap +13.93%
Under +13.93%
DraftKings
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -19.95% / Under gap +13.93%
Under +13.93%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -21.10% / Under gap +13.48%
Under +13.48%
FanDuel
5.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -8.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -20.63% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.9% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.2
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs STL | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Over +11.25%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +11.25% / Under gap --
Over +11.25%
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap +10.52% / Under gap --
Over +10.52%
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap +10.13% / Under gap -16.02%
Over +10.13%
FanDuel
3.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap +0.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -2.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.5% | U 74.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.7
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.48
Strongest Gap Under +10.53%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +113 / U -145
Over gap -16.66% / Under gap +10.53%
Under +10.53%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -16.27% / Under gap +9.28%
Under +9.28%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -14.35% / Under gap +8.47%
Under +8.47%
Model O 30.3% | U 69.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.8
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.80
Strongest Gap Under +10.44%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -16.47% / Under gap +10.44%
Under +10.44%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -17.16% / Under gap +10.23%
Under +10.23%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -14.28% / Under gap +8.26%
Under +8.26%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -14.28% / Under gap +8.26%
Under +8.26%
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -3.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -8.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -14.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -17.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -17.76% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.2% | U 64.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs CWS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.60
Strongest Gap Under +9.24%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -15.13% / Under gap +9.24%
Under +9.24%
FanDuel
5.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -15.13% / Under gap +9.24%
Under +9.24%
DraftKings
6.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap -10.71% / Under gap +4.73%
Under +4.73%
BetMGM
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -11.72% / Under gap +4.73%
Under +4.73%
FanDuel
8.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -1.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +130 / U --
Over gap -9.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -15.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -17.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.6
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.05
Strongest Gap Over +8.87%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap +8.87% / Under gap -14.89%
Over +8.87%
FanDuel
3.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +8.21% / Under gap -14.06%
Over +8.21%
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +6.60% / Under gap -13.71%
Over +6.60%
Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.68
Strongest Gap Under +8.58%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -14.45% / Under gap +8.58%
Under +8.58%
DraftKings
4.5
O +120 / U -153
Over gap -14.03% / Under gap +8.11%
Under +8.11%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -12.08% / Under gap +4.79%
Under +4.79%
Model O 31.4% | U 68.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.1
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs BAL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.68
Strongest Gap Under +6.60%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -157 / U +123
Over gap -12.53% / Under gap +6.60%
Under +6.60%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -12.98% / Under gap +5.99%
Under +5.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -11.27% / Under gap +5.09%
Under +5.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -11.27% / Under gap +5.09%
Under +5.09%
FanDuel
7.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -2.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -6.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -13.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -186 / U --
Over gap -16.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -17.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.3
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs NYM | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap Over +4.99%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +4.99% / Under gap --
Over +4.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap +2.68% / Under gap --
Over +2.68%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -1.09% / Under gap -5.84%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -1.49% / Under gap -4.44%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -1.49% / Under gap -4.44%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -2.10% / Under gap -3.96%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -5.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -5.12% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.4% | U 74.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.9
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs WSH | 7 books
Play
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Over +3.51%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +3.51% / Under gap --
Over +3.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +1.99% / Under gap --
Over +1.99%
DraftKings
3.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap -1.44%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -2.42% / Under gap -5.20%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -2.63%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -2.63%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -5.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.7% | U 74.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.9
Spencer Arrighetti headshot

Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs TB | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.15
Strongest Gap Under +2.89%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -8.91% / Under gap +2.89%
Under +2.89%
DraftKings
5.5
O +103 / U -131
Over gap -8.67% / Under gap +2.70%
Under +2.70%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -8.19% / Under gap +1.08%
No Play
Model O 40.6% | U 59.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.9
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs LAD | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.03
Strongest Gap Over +1.69%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap +1.69% / Under gap -8.20%
Over +1.69%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -3.56% / Under gap -2.61%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -2.83% / Under gap -3.09%
No Play
Model O 54.1% | U 45.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
SEA vs TOR | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.17
Strongest Gap Over +1.62%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +1.62% / Under gap -8.55%
Over +1.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -3.51% / Under gap -2.47%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -145 / U +114
Over gap -3.01% / Under gap -2.90%
No Play
Model O 56.2% | U 43.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.