Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-14 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-14
16 matched props 5 unmatched
Newer: 2026-04-15 Older: 2026-03-30

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 16
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 1
Unmatched Inputs 5
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-14 | Raw sportsbook rows: 16 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-14/strikeout_edges_2026-04-14.json
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs LAA | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap Under +10.98%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -18.11% / Under gap +10.98%
Under +10.98%
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs CIN | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 5.63
Strongest Gap Under +10.91%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -106 / U -122
Over gap -17.32% / Under gap +10.91%
Under +10.91%
Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.2
Cole Ragans headshot

Cole Ragans
KC vs DET | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 6.40
Strongest Gap Under +9.05%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -158 / U +116
Over gap -16.59% / Under gap +9.05%
Under +9.05%
Model O 44.6% | U 55.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 77.5
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs BAL | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 4.77
Strongest Gap Under +6.89%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -174 / U +132
Over gap -13.49% / Under gap +6.89%
Under +6.89%
Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.4
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs WSH | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 4.73
Strongest Gap Over +6.27%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap +6.27% / Under gap -13.40%
Over +6.27%
Model O 49.4% | U 50.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.7
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs TOR | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 6.26
Strongest Gap Under +5.77%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -125 / U -106
Over gap -12.79% / Under gap +5.77%
Under +5.77%
Model O 42.8% | U 57.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.6
Miles Mikolas headshot

Miles Mikolas
WSH vs PIT | 1 books
Play
Adj K 3.39
Strongest Gap Under +3.62%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -114 / U -114
Over gap -10.16% / Under gap +3.62%
Under +3.62%
Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.8
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs MIL | 1 books
Play
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Under +3.23%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -10.20% / Under gap +3.23%
Under +3.23%
Model O 49.1% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.2
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs CLE | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 3.50
Strongest Gap No Play +0.62%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +124 / U -166
Over gap +0.62% / Under gap -7.67%
No Play
Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.8
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs MIN | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 5.79
Strongest Gap No Play +0.49%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -7.62% / Under gap +0.49%
No Play
Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.3
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs ATL | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 4.60
Strongest Gap No Play +0.36%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -7.29% / Under gap +0.36%
No Play
Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.0
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs KC | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 5.39
Strongest Gap No Play +0.32%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -144 / U +108
Over gap +0.32% / Under gap -7.42%
No Play
Model O 59.3% | U 40.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs STL | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 5.27
Strongest Gap No Play -0.73%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -6.14% / Under gap -0.73%
No Play
Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.6
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs SF | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 4.97
Strongest Gap No Play -0.77%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -6.20% / Under gap -0.77%
No Play
Model O 53.1% | U 46.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.2
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs CHC | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 5.74
Strongest Gap No Play -2.13%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -4.83% / Under gap -2.13%
No Play
Model O 49.3% | U 50.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.6
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs AZ | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 4.60
Strongest Gap No Play -2.21%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap -2.21%
No Play
Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.