Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-15 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-15

17 matched props 4 unmatched

Newer: 2026-04-16 Older: 2026-04-14

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 17

Grouped Pitchers 17

Books 1

Unmatched Inputs 4

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-15 | Raw sportsbook rows: 17 | Grouped pitcher entries: 17 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-15/strikeout_edges_2026-04-15.json

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs PHI | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.75

Strongest Gap Under +14.09%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -125 / U -106

Over gap -21.11% / Under gap +14.09%

Under +14.09%

Model O 34.4% | U 65.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1

Tyler Mahle

SF vs CIN | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.28

Strongest Gap Under +10.35%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +124 / U -166

Over gap -17.40% / Under gap +10.35%

Under +10.35%

Model O 27.2% | U 72.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4

Dylan Cease

TOR vs MIL | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 6.37

Strongest Gap Under +6.25%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -136 / U +102

Over gap -13.38% / Under gap +6.25%

Under +6.25%

Model O 44.2% | U 55.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.3

Bryce Elder

ATL vs MIA | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.93

Strongest Gap Over +6.23%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap +6.23% / Under gap -13.16%

Over +6.23%

Model O 52.5% | U 47.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ vs BAL | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.57

Strongest Gap Under +6.07%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -148 / U +112

Over gap -12.92% / Under gap +6.07%

Under +6.07%

Model O 46.8% | U 53.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.2

Jack Flaherty

DET vs KC | 1 books

Play

Adj K 5.90

Strongest Gap Over +4.82%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +114 / U -152

Over gap +4.82% / Under gap -11.87%

Over +4.82%

Model O 51.5% | U 48.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.4

Jack Kochanowicz

LAA vs NYY | 1 books

Lean

Adj K 3.16

Strongest Gap Under +1.83%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +112 / U -148

Over gap -8.68% / Under gap +1.83%

Under +1.83%

Model O 38.5% | U 61.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.7

Sean Burke

CWS vs TB | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.11

Strongest Gap No Play +1.37%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +112 / U -148

Over gap -8.22% / Under gap +1.37%

No Play

Model O 39.0% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.2

Kyle Bradish

BAL vs AZ | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.72

Strongest Gap No Play +0.93%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +108 / U -144

Over gap +0.93% / Under gap -8.03%

No Play

Model O 49.0% | U 51.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6

Luis Gil

NYY vs LAA | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.95

Strongest Gap No Play -0.43%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -114 / U -114

Over gap -0.43% / Under gap -6.11%

No Play

Model O 52.8% | U 47.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.8

Slade Cecconi

CLE vs STL | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.23

Strongest Gap No Play -0.71%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +112 / U -148

Over gap -6.14% / Under gap -0.71%

No Play

Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.4

Chad Patrick

MIL vs TOR | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.66

Strongest Gap No Play -0.78%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +104 / U -138

Over gap -0.78% / Under gap -6.22%

No Play

Model O 48.2% | U 51.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.0

Jake Irvin

WSH vs PIT | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.11

Strongest Gap No Play -1.36%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +124 / U -166

Over gap -5.69% / Under gap -1.36%

No Play

Model O 39.0% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.7

Chris Paddack

MIA vs ATL | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 3.66

Strongest Gap No Play -1.67%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +100 / U -132

Over gap -1.67% / Under gap -5.23%

No Play

Model O 48.3% | U 51.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.8

Dustin May

STL vs CLE | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.30

Strongest Gap No Play -1.99%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -1.99% / Under gap -5.00%

No Play

Model O 59.6% | U 40.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.5

Seth Lugo

KC vs DET | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.65

Strongest Gap No Play -3.02%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -108 / U -122

Over gap -3.85% / Under gap -3.02%

No Play

Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.3

Simeon Woods Richardson

MIN vs BOS | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.33

Strongest Gap No Play -3.06%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +114 / U -152

Over gap -3.99% / Under gap -3.06%

No Play

Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.