{ "date": "2026-04-14", "generated_at": "2026-04-14T07:10:38.248230", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-04-14", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 21, "matched_count": 16, "unmatched_count": 5 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 16, "grouped_pitcher_count": 16, "sportsbook_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 16, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 37.4, "opportunity_score": 38.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 55.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3952, "model_under_probability": 0.6048, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1811, "edge_under": 0.1098, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1098, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 57.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3414, "model_under_probability": 0.6586, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4836, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5164, "edge_over": -0.1732, "edge_under": 0.1091, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1091, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cole Ragans", "pitcher_id": 666142, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 6.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.4, "skill_score": 81.4, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4465, "model_under_probability": 0.5535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5695, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4305, "edge_over": -0.1659, "edge_under": 0.0905, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0905, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 77.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21380.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.64, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 13.8, "opportunity_score": 47.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5957, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4043, "edge_over": -0.1349, "edge_under": 0.0689, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0689, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 132, "under_odds": -178, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 20.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4937, "model_under_probability": 0.5063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4023, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5977, "edge_over": 0.0627, "edge_under": -0.134, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.6, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 56.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4277, "model_under_probability": 0.5723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4808, "edge_over": -0.1279, "edge_under": 0.0577, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0577, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 32.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4311, "model_under_probability": 0.5689, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1016, "edge_under": 0.0362, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0362, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 84.0, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4915, "model_under_probability": 0.5085, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.102, "edge_under": 0.0323, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0323, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.5, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4526, "model_under_probability": 0.5474, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": -0.0767, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 16.3, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0762, "edge_under": 0.0049, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0049, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 53.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4726, "model_under_probability": 0.5274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0729, "edge_under": 0.0036, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "skill_score": 17.0, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5934, "model_under_probability": 0.4066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5511, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4489, "edge_over": 0.0032, "edge_under": -0.0742, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0032, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 59.8, "opportunity_score": 36.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 76.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.424, "model_under_probability": 0.576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.0614, "edge_under": -0.0073, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0073, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 14.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 22.8, "opportunity_score": 25.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5315, "model_under_probability": 0.4685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.062, "edge_under": -0.0077, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0077, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 47.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.493, "model_under_probability": 0.507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0483, "edge_under": -0.0213, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0213, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4726, "model_under_probability": 0.5274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.0466, "edge_under": -0.0221, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0221, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Mick Abel", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }