Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
TB 12, PHI 1. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
TB 12, PHI 1
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
12 – 1final score
13total runs
40% → 0%PHI win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jax, Griffin vs Nola, Aaron · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
TB 60.2%PHI 39.8%
5.18 – 3.9mean score
9.07mean total
50%NRFI
9.7%extra innings
6.12 / 5.54starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
TB (gold) vs PHI (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
TB per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Díaz, Yandy | 4.917 | 1.395 | 0.181 | 2.229 | 0.37 | 0.965 | 0.56 |
| Aranda, Jonathan | 4.806 | 1.244 | 0.201 | 2.105 | 0.419 | 1.441 | 0.597 |
| Hicks, Liam | 4.69 | 1.269 | 0.19 | 2.082 | 0.42 | 0.719 | 0.628 |
| Caminero, Junior | 4.583 | 1.194 | 0.302 | 2.396 | 0.43 | 1.067 | 0.854 |
| Mesa Jr., Victor | 4.481 | 1.095 | 0.261 | 2.154 | 0.372 | 1.165 | 0.739 |
| Palacios, Richie | 4.37 | 0.975 | 0.138 | 1.574 | 0.428 | 0.993 | 0.497 |
| DeLuca, Jonny | 4.263 | 1.137 | 0.136 | 1.796 | 0.237 | 1.121 | 0.508 |
| Mullins, Cedric | 4.152 | 0.87 | 0.15 | 1.491 | 0.358 | 1.02 | 0.482 |
| Walls, Taylor | 4.033 | 0.863 | 0.045 | 1.138 | 0.371 | 1.168 | 0.312 |
Projected batting lines
PHI per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner, Trea | 4.571 | 0.983 | 0.125 | 1.558 | 0.294 | 1.225 | 0.384 |
| Schwarber, Kyle | 4.449 | 0.919 | 0.286 | 2.004 | 0.552 | 1.656 | 0.616 |
| Harper, Bryce | 4.343 | 0.999 | 0.177 | 1.786 | 0.558 | 1.187 | 0.513 |
| Bohm, Alec | 4.247 | 0.979 | 0.104 | 1.492 | 0.306 | 0.843 | 0.44 |
| Stott, Bryson | 4.148 | 0.958 | 0.086 | 1.427 | 0.36 | 0.913 | 0.398 |
| De La Cruz, Bryan | 4.044 | 1.009 | 0.107 | 1.547 | 0.279 | 0.995 | 0.441 |
| Marsh, Brandon | 3.941 | 0.936 | 0.123 | 1.499 | 0.232 | 1.166 | 0.465 |
| Realmuto, J.T. | 3.827 | 0.752 | 0.095 | 1.176 | 0.273 | 1.033 | 0.358 |
| Crawford, Justin | 3.697 | 0.882 | 0.041 | 1.171 | 0.213 | 0.883 | 0.282 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Díaz, Yandy vs Nola, Aaron: HR +1 run (1-0)
Aranda, Jonathan vs Nola, Aaron: HR +1 run (2-0)
Hicks, Liam vs Nola, Aaron: 1B
Caminero, Junior vs Nola, Aaron: HR +2 runs (4-0)
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Nola, Aaron: K
Palacios, Richie vs Nola, Aaron: BB
DeLuca, Jonny vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
Mullins, Cedric vs Nola, Aaron: K
— Bottom 1 —
Turner, Trea vs Jax, Griffin: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Jax, Griffin: OUT GB
Harper, Bryce vs Jax, Griffin: 2B
Bohm, Alec vs Jax, Griffin: 1B +1 run (4-1)
Stott, Bryson vs Jax, Griffin: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Walls, Taylor vs Nola, Aaron: K
Díaz, Yandy vs Nola, Aaron: 1B
Aranda, Jonathan vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
Hicks, Liam vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
De La Cruz, Bryan vs Jax, Griffin: BB
Marsh, Brandon vs Jax, Griffin: K
Realmuto, J.T. vs Jax, Griffin: OUT AIR
Crawford, Justin vs Jax, Griffin: K
— Top 3 —
Caminero, Junior vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Nola, Aaron: BB
Palacios, Richie vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
DeLuca, Jonny vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Turner, Trea vs Jax, Griffin: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Jax, Griffin: HR +1 run (4-2)
Harper, Bryce vs Jax, Griffin: 1B
Bohm, Alec vs Jax, Griffin: 1B
Stott, Bryson vs Jax, Griffin: HR +3 runs (4-5)
De La Cruz, Bryan vs Grove, Michael: OUT GB
Marsh, Brandon vs Grove, Michael: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Mullins, Cedric vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
Walls, Taylor vs Nola, Aaron: OUT AIR
Díaz, Yandy vs Nola, Aaron: BB
Aranda, Jonathan vs Nola, Aaron: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Realmuto, J.T. vs Grove, Michael: OUT AIR
Crawford, Justin vs Grove, Michael: BB
Turner, Trea vs Booser, Cam: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Booser, Cam: K
— Top 5 —
Hicks, Liam vs Nola, Aaron: K
Caminero, Junior vs Nola, Aaron: K
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Nola, Aaron: 1B
Palacios, Richie vs Alvarado, José: BB
DeLuca, Jonny vs Alvarado, José: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Harper, Bryce vs Booser, Cam: OUT AIR
Bohm, Alec vs Booser, Cam: OUT GB
Stott, Bryson vs Booser, Cam: 1B
De La Cruz, Bryan vs Booser, Cam: K
— Top 6 —
Mullins, Cedric vs Alvarado, José: OUT AIR
Walls, Taylor vs Alvarado, José: BB
Díaz, Yandy vs Alvarado, José: OUT AIR
Aranda, Jonathan vs Alvarado, José: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Marsh, Brandon vs Cleavinger, Garrett: K
Realmuto, J.T. vs Cleavinger, Garrett: 1B
Crawford, Justin vs Cleavinger, Garrett: K
Turner, Trea vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Hicks, Liam vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
Caminero, Junior vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Palacios, Richie vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
DeLuca, Jonny vs Banks, Tanner: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Cleavinger, Garrett: BB
Harper, Bryce vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT AIR
Bohm, Alec vs Kelly, Kevin: OUT GB
Stott, Bryson vs Kelly, Kevin: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Mullins, Cedric vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT AIR
Walls, Taylor vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT AIR
Díaz, Yandy vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
De La Cruz, Bryan vs Kelly, Kevin: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Kelly, Kevin: K
Realmuto, J.T. vs Baker, Bryan: K
— Top 9 —
Aranda, Jonathan vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT GB
Hicks, Liam vs Bowlan, Jonathan: K
Caminero, Junior vs Bowlan, Jonathan: 1B
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Duran, Jhoan: K