The Mirror / Record auto-graded
Every call, graded. No exceptions.
Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-09-18.
Cumulative
2026-09-18 → 2026-09-24
54–37winner picks
59.3%pick accuracy
0.2351Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
91games graded
Game by game
The ledger
| Date | Game | Pick | Conf | Result | Sim total | Mkt | Actual | O/U call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | HOU @ ATH | HOU | 66% | ✓ HOU | 9.7 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | CIN @ ATL | ATL | 71% | ✗ CIN | 9.3 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | CLE @ BOS | BOS | 55% | ✗ CLE | 7.1 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | MIA @ CHC | CHC | 60% | ✓ CHC | 8.3 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | AZ @ COL | AZ | 65% | ✓ AZ | 9.9 | -- | 20 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | CWS @ KC | CWS | 54% | ✓ CWS | 8.9 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | SD @ LAD | LAD | 61% | ✗ SD | 8.0 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 56% | ✓ NYY | 7.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | MIL @ PHI | MIL | 54% | ✓ MIL | 9.1 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | STL @ PIT | PIT | 61% | ✓ PIT | 7.5 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | LAA @ SEA | SEA | 65% | ✗ LAA | 8.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | NYM @ TEX | NYM | 50% | ✗ TEX | 9.1 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | LAA @ ATH | LAA | 56% | ✗ ATH | 8.1 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | CIN @ ATL | ATL | 71% | ✓ ATL | 7.1 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | TOR @ BAL | TOR | 53% | ✗ BAL | 7.8 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | TOR @ BAL | TOR | 55% | ✗ BAL | 7.7 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | CLE @ BOS | BOS | 55% | ✓ BOS | 6.9 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | MIA @ CHC | CHC | 58% | ✗ MIA | 8.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | AZ @ COL | AZ | 56% | ✓ AZ | 11.0 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | WSH @ DET | DET | 57% | ✗ WSH | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | CWS @ KC | CWS | 57% | ✗ KC | 8.9 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | SD @ LAD | LAD | 61% | ✗ SD | 8.1 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 56% | ✓ NYY | 8.6 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | MIL @ PHI | MIL | 69% | ✓ MIL | 8.2 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | STL @ PIT | PIT | 66% | ✗ STL | 7.5 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | MIN @ SF | MIN | 57% | ✓ MIN | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | HOU @ SEA | HOU | 58% | ✗ SEA | 9.1 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | NYM @ TEX | NYM | 55% | ✓ NYM | 9.5 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | LAA @ ATH | ATH | 56% | ✓ ATH | 8.4 | -- | 16 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | CIN @ ATL | ATL | 58% | ✗ CIN | 9.0 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | CLE @ BOS | CLE | 56% | ✓ CLE | 6.4 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | MIA @ CHC | CHC | 58% | ✗ MIA | 8.4 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | AZ @ COL | AZ | 63% | ✓ AZ | 10.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | WSH @ DET | DET | 59% | ✗ WSH | 8.3 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | CWS @ KC | KC | 52% | ✗ CWS | 8.3 | -- | 25 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | SD @ LAD | LAD | 55% | ✓ LAD | 8.3 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 56% | ✓ NYY | 8.3 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 57% | ✗ TB | 6.7 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | MIL @ PHI | PHI | 50% | ✓ PHI | 8.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | STL @ PIT | PIT | 62% | ✓ PIT | 7.3 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | MIN @ SF | SF | 53% | ✗ MIN | 7.0 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | HOU @ SEA | SEA | 54% | ✗ HOU | 8.4 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | NYM @ TEX | TEX | 57% | ✗ NYM | 9.5 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-21 | TOR @ BAL | TOR | 54% | ✗ BAL | 7.5 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-21 | WSH @ DET | DET | 60% | ✓ DET | 8.0 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-21 | MIN @ SF | MIN | 51% | ✗ SF | 7.5 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | NYY @ AZ | AZ | 59% | ✓ AZ | 8.0 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | MIL @ BAL | MIL | 73% | ✓ MIL | 7.8 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | DET @ CWS | DET | 56% | ✗ CWS | 7.8 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | CHC @ CIN | CHC | 53% | ✓ CHC | 11.8 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | ATH @ CLE | CLE | 66% | ✓ CLE | 7.9 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA @ COL | SEA | 55% | ✓ SEA | 10.8 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL @ HOU | HOU | 52% | ✗ ATL | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN @ LAA | LAA | 54% | ✗ MIN | 9.1 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | SF @ LAD | LAD | 64% | ✓ LAD | 8.8 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI @ NYM | NYM | 54% | ✗ PHI | 8.1 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | KC @ PIT | PIT | 62% | ✓ PIT | 7.8 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA @ SD | SD | 51% | ✓ SD | 8.5 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | WSH @ STL | STL | 59% | ✓ STL | 9.7 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | BOS @ TB | TB | 70% | ✓ TB | 9.0 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-20 | TOR @ TEX | TEX | 54% | ✗ TOR | 7.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | NYY @ AZ | AZ | 51% | ✓ AZ | 6.8 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | MIL @ BAL | MIL | 54% | ✓ MIL | 8.8 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | DET @ CWS | CWS | 54% | ✓ CWS | 8.0 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | CHC @ CIN | CHC | 56% | ✓ CHC | 10.8 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | ATH @ CLE | CLE | 60% | ✓ CLE | 9.2 | -- | 18 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | SEA @ COL | SEA | 55% | ✗ COL | 10.1 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | ATL @ HOU | HOU | 57% | ✗ ATL | 8.7 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | MIN @ LAA | LAA | 57% | ✓ LAA | 7.5 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | SF @ LAD | LAD | 67% | ✓ LAD | 8.0 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | PHI @ NYM | NYM | 58% | ✓ NYM | 9.0 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | KC @ PIT | PIT | 57% | ✓ PIT | 8.4 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | MIA @ SD | SD | 57% | ✓ SD | 7.4 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | WSH @ STL | WSH | 55% | ✓ WSH | 8.0 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | BOS @ TB | TB | 60% | ✓ TB | 8.9 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-19 | TOR @ TEX | TEX | 53% | ✓ TEX | 8.5 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | NYY @ AZ | AZ | 55% | ✗ NYY | 7.5 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | MIL @ BAL | MIL | 57% | ✓ MIL | 8.7 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | DET @ CWS | DET | 50% | ✓ DET | 8.0 | -- | 19 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | CHC @ CIN | CHC | 53% | ✗ CIN | 8.6 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | ATH @ CLE | CLE | 61% | ✓ CLE | 8.7 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | SEA @ COL | SEA | 57% | ✓ SEA | 9.3 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | ATL @ HOU | HOU | 58% | ✗ ATL | 8.5 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | MIN @ LAA | MIN | 57% | ✓ MIN | 8.9 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | SF @ LAD | LAD | 67% | ✓ LAD | 7.8 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | PHI @ NYM | NYM | 54% | ✓ NYM | 9.1 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | KC @ PIT | PIT | 64% | ✓ PIT | 7.8 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | MIA @ SD | SD | 58% | ✓ SD | 7.7 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | WSH @ STL | STL | 50% | ✗ WSH | 8.6 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | BOS @ TB | TB | 65% | ✗ BOS | 7.9 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-18 | TOR @ TEX | TOR | 65% | ✗ TEX | 8.4 | -- | 8 | -- |
At-bat calls
Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance
Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 74242 at-bats and counting.
22.5% / 22.7%hit prob: predicted / actual
21.8% / 21.8%K prob: predicted / actual
74242at-bats graded
| When we said HIT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-20% | 14256 | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| 20%-25% | 45872 | 22.4% | 22.7% |
| 25%-30% | 13630 | 26.5% | 24.6% |
| 30%-100% | 484 | 31.0% | 27.3% |
| When we said STRIKEOUT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-15% | 8445 | 12.7% | 11.9% |
| 15%-22% | 31735 | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| 22%-30% | 27229 | 25.3% | 25.6% |
| 30%-100% | 6833 | 33.4% | 32.6% |