Mithrandir Metrics
BOS American League East Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Boston Red Sox

78.9-83.1 with P10-P90 wins 69-89. 81.8 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
78.9-83.1
Live pace
79.3
Delta
+0.3
Record 46-48 Run diff 27 Generated 2026-07-17T11:44:53.145921+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason79.0
Current pace79.3
Rolling p5079.2
Observed weight61%
Rolling wins
69.2 73.9 79.2 84.4 89.1
MOVE +0.2 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.27
October path

Projection odds

Division4.1%
Playoffs28.0%
Pennant2.7%
World Series1.1%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.252
Rotation FIP4.06
Bullpen FIP4.27
Run diff-13.8
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CNarváez, Carlos438-0.68
1BContreras, Willson5286.93
2BCampbell, Kristian3440.97
SSMonasterio, Andruw294-0.36
3BDurbin, Caleb4850.65
LFDuran, Jarren6465.15
CFRafaela, Ceddanne568-0.82
RFAbreu, Wilyer4703.00
DHGonzalez, Romy4000.20