Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Story, Trevor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.248 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.249
0.263
0.278
0.293
0.307
wOBA
0.273
0.293
0.316
0.338
0.358
ISO
0.103
0.120
0.139
0.158
0.174
K%
25.6%
27.2%
29.0%
30.7%
32.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.6%
12
Barrel%2.6%
20
-36 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
42
Exit velocity88.0
44
Hard-hit%41.1%
54
K%30.9%
10
-22 vs proj
xBA0.325
52
xSLG0.472
37
xwOBA0.248
7
-32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
66
Arm Strength82.9 · SS
27
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · SS
9
Range Runs-2.1 · SS
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · SS
68
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
67
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.8% · rebadged research
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions58.9% · rebadged research
7
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
74
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
40
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
124 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 194 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 558 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.261 to 0.344 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.152 | 0.107 to 0.231 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.7% to 7.6% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.2% | 35.8% to 49.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 25.5% | 22.0% to 32.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 3.7% to 8.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.278 to 0.386 | +/- 0.054 |
vs LHP
1262 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
3358 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |