Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Morán, Jovani

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
14.1% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace3.25
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.86 2.83 3.90 4.98 5.95
FIP
3.09 3.65 4.26 4.88 5.44
K%
18.0% 20.3% 22.8% 25.3% 27.6%
BB%
7.3% 9.1% 11.0% 13.0% 14.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.9%
16
Barrel allowed11.2%
13 -55 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
22
Hard-hit allowed30.0%
93
K%26.9%
79 +31 vs proj
Whiff%30.0%
89
xwOBA allowed0.273
81
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morán, Jovani · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2952026-05-19: 0.2952026-05-21: 0.2872026-05-23: 0.2842026-05-24: 0.2902026-05-25: 0.2822026-05-26: 0.2822026-05-28: 0.2822026-05-29: 0.2822026-05-30: 0.2822026-05-31: 0.2822026-06-01: 0.273 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morán, Jovani · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.7%Changeup: 36.2%Cutter: 16.1%Sweeper: 5.8%Sinker: 1.9%Curveball: 0.4% MIX FF 40%CH 36%FC 16%ST 6%SI 2%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.7CHFC: HB -0.1, IVB 2.8FCST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.8STSI: HB 1.1, IVB 1.6SICU: HB 0.2, IVB 4.7CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.4% 180 100 limited sample
CH 35.7% 163 100 limited sample
FC 17.3% 79 99 limited sample
SL 5.7% 26 99 limited sample
SI 1.5% 7 106 limited sample
CB 0.4% 2 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.75
K% Δ+0.050
Sample31.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.9----
Batters Faced140----
K%21.9%14.1% to 28.1%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%5.4% to 16.2%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%28.0%21.5% to 35.0%+/- 6.7%
HR/90.980.05 to 1.52+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2810.201 to 0.357+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed6.3%2.1% to 10.1%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.001.51 to 7.07+/- 2.78
FIP4.041.80 to 5.00+/- 1.60
WHIP1.2760.943 to 1.766+/- 0.412
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

155 career BF

xwOBA0.208
K%17.8%
BB%11.3%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

279 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Barrel4.1%