Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Morán, Jovani

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
14.1% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal6 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace3.23
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.74 2.68 3.71 4.75 5.68
FIP
3.09 3.63 4.23 4.82 5.36
K%
20.0% 21.7% 23.7% 25.6% 27.4%
BB%
8.6% 10.0% 11.5% 13.0% 14.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA3.23
78
BB%12.3%
16 -16 vs proj
K%26.4%
79 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.279
85
Barrel allowed8.5%
33 -36 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
25
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
97
Whiff%30.4%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+99
32
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Mithrandir Stuff+98
18
Cutter Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+103
52
Slider Stuff+99
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morán, Jovani · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.279 2026-09-12: 0.2842026-09-13: 0.2842026-09-14: 0.2842026-09-18: 0.2802026-09-19: 0.2802026-09-20: 0.2802026-09-21: 0.2802026-09-22: 0.2802026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.279 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morán, Jovani · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.0%Changeup: 35.1%Cutter: 11.8%Sinker: 9.1%Sweeper: 4.8%Curveball: 0.2% FF39% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 39%CH 35%FC 12%SI 9%ST 5%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCutter: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.2 mphFC85 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 79.6 mphST80 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.4% 332 98 qualified
CH 36.1% 296 99 qualified
FC 12.4% 102 98 limited sample
SI 6.2% 51 103 limited sample
SL 4.6% 38 99 limited sample
CB 0.2% 2 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.77
K% Δ+0.045
Sample65.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.8----
Batters Faced135----
K%21.9%14.1% to 28.1%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%5.4% to 16.2%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%28.0%21.5% to 35.0%+/- 6.7%
HR/90.980.05 to 1.52+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2780.201 to 0.357+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed6.3%2.1% to 10.1%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.001.51 to 7.07+/- 2.78
FIP4.041.80 to 5.00+/- 1.60
WHIP1.2770.943 to 1.767+/- 0.412
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

155 career BF

xwOBA0.208
K%17.8%
BB%11.3%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

279 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Barrel4.1%