Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Morán, Jovani

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
14.1% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal6 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace2.82
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.68 2.63 3.69 4.74 5.69
FIP
2.92 3.47 4.07 4.68 5.22
K%
19.4% 21.6% 24.0% 26.4% 28.6%
BB%
7.8% 9.4% 11.3% 13.1% 14.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
82
ERA2.82
81
BB%12.4%
15
K%29.2%
89 +44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.263
93
Barrel allowed9.8%
22 -50 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
21
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
94
Whiff%32.2%
96
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+98
24
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Changeup Stuff+100
32
Cutter Stuff+99
26
Sinker Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morán, Jovani · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.263 2026-07-06: 0.2652026-07-07: 0.2652026-07-08: 0.2652026-07-09: 0.2652026-07-10: 0.2632026-07-11: 0.2632026-07-12: 0.2632026-07-13: 0.2632026-07-14: 0.2632026-07-15: 0.2632026-07-16: 0.2632026-07-17: 0.263 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morán, Jovani · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.7%Changeup: 36.4%Cutter: 14.6%Sweeper: 5.1%Sinker: 3.8%Curveball: 0.3% FF40% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CH 36%FC 15%ST 5%SI 4%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 36% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCutter: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.0 mphFC85 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.1% 201 98 qualified
CH 36.8% 189 100 limited sample
FC 15.6% 80 99 limited sample
SL 5.1% 26 100 limited sample
SI 3.1% 16 108 limited sample
CB 0.4% 2 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.18
K% Δ+0.073
Sample39.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.3----
Batters Faced138----
K%21.9%14.1% to 28.1%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%5.4% to 16.2%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%28.0%21.5% to 35.0%+/- 6.7%
HR/90.980.05 to 1.52+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2790.201 to 0.357+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed6.3%2.1% to 10.1%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.001.51 to 7.07+/- 2.78
FIP4.041.80 to 5.00+/- 1.60
WHIP1.2750.943 to 1.766+/- 0.412
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

155 career BF

xwOBA0.208
K%17.8%
BB%11.3%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

279 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Barrel4.1%