Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Whitlock, Garrett

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
20.5% to 36.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
92
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
86
Arsenal4 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.65
ERA current pace2.18
ERA rolling p503.13
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.61 2.33 3.13 3.94 4.66
FIP
2.16 2.65 3.21 3.76 4.26
K%
23.2% 25.7% 28.5% 31.4% 33.9%
BB%
4.4% 5.6% 7.0% 8.3% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.92
94
ERA2.18
94
BB%4.6%
98 +41 vs proj
K%29.0%
88
xwOBA allowed0.276
86
Barrel allowed4.6%
88 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
85
Whiff%27.9%
84
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Whitlock, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.276 2026-07-05: 0.2892026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2842026-07-08: 0.2842026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2812026-07-12: 0.2812026-07-13: 0.2812026-07-14: 0.2762026-07-15: 0.2762026-07-16: 0.276 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Whitlock, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Whitlock, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 54.4%Slider: 28.6%Changeup: 17.0% SI54% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 54%SL 29%CH 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Whitlock, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 54% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSlider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 50.7% 175 100 limited sample
SL 32.5% 112 103 limited sample
CH 16.8% 58 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 47%, Slider 31%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.43
K% Δ+0.012
Sample33.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.9----
Batters Faced165----
K%27.8%20.5% to 36.1%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.3%5.2% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%28.5%23.4% to 34.1%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.070.36 to 1.69+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2900.254 to 0.345+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.5% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.611.56 to 5.70+/- 2.07
FIP3.101.91 to 4.76+/- 1.42
WHIP1.2391.034 to 1.633+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

639 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%26.1%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

794 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%27.0%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.0%