Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Chapman, Aroldis

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
34.2% K%
Range
27.4% to 43.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal4 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace2.20
ERA rolling p503.02
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.44 2.19 3.02 3.85 4.59
FIP
1.90 2.37 2.89 3.41 3.87
K%
27.6% 30.1% 32.9% 35.7% 38.3%
BB%
7.2% 8.6% 10.3% 12.0% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
47
ERA2.20
94
BB%10.2%
32
K%29.9%
93
xwOBA allowed0.263
93
Barrel allowed8.6%
36
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
55
Whiff%27.9%
83
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+111
98
Slider Stuff+100
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Chapman, Aroldis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.263 2026-07-05: 0.2592026-07-06: 0.2592026-07-07: 0.2672026-07-08: 0.2672026-07-09: 0.2672026-07-10: 0.2672026-07-11: 0.2642026-07-12: 0.2642026-07-13: 0.2642026-07-14: 0.2632026-07-15: 0.2632026-07-16: 0.263 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Chapman, Aroldis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chapman, Aroldis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.6%Sinker: 34.6%Slider: 19.2%Split-Finger: 9.7% FF37% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SI 35%SL 19%FS 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chapman, Aroldis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSinker: 35% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.0 mphSI98 mphSlider: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.5 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.5 mphFS90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.8% 127 111 limited sample
FB 39.4% 117 104 limited sample
SL 17.8% 53 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 33%, Slider 16%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.05
K% Δ-0.042
Sample31.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.9----
Batters Faced161----
K%34.2%27.4% to 43.2%+/- 7.9%
BB%10.9%5.7% to 14.8%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%30.5%26.3% to 37.6%+/- 5.6%
HR/90.980.37 to 1.70+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2810.192 to 0.336+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.3% to 12.6%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.250.90 to 5.20+/- 2.15
FIP2.851.48 to 4.17+/- 1.35
WHIP1.1910.820 to 1.548+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

657 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%33.2%
BB%9.3%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

1940 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%34.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel7.3%