Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Rafaela, Ceddanne
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.280
0.292
0.304
0.315
wOBA
0.348
0.363
0.380
0.396
0.411
ISO
0.128
0.141
0.155
0.169
0.182
K%
18.3%
19.5%
20.8%
22.1%
23.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
-27 vs proj
Exit velocity86.1
27
Hard-hit%33.7%
27
-20 vs proj
xBA0.311
37
xSLG0.449
28
xwOBA0.286
28
BB%5.4%
16
Bat speed67.4
23
K%20.0%
65
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
81
Arm Strength97.5 · CF
86
Outs Above Avg12.0 · CF
99
Range Runs11.0 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
70
Bolts19.0 · CF
80
SB Success Rate64.7% · CF
18
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.2% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.084 |
| Sample | 390 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 568 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.274 to 0.344 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.103 to 0.227 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.9% to 8.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 34.6% to 47.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 20.9% | 17.4% to 27.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 3.2% to 7.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.257 to 0.363 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
354 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
967 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |