Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Suarez, Ranger

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
19.0% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal7 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.27
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.48 2.93 3.43 3.93 4.38
FIP
2.86 3.14 3.46 3.77 4.06
K%
20.3% 21.2% 22.2% 23.2% 24.1%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
66
ERA3.27
77
BB%7.4%
72
K%22.6%
54
xwOBA allowed0.294
74
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo90.8
7
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
83
Whiff%19.9%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+99
29
Curveball Stuff+100
16
Cutter Stuff+99
27
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+100
36
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Ranger · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.294 2026-09-12: 0.2982026-09-13: 0.2972026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.2982026-09-22: 0.2982026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2982026-09-25: 0.2982026-09-26: 0.294 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Ranger · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 24.4%4-Seam Fastball: 22.5%Cutter: 18.8%Curveball: 16.6%Changeup: 12.6%Slider: 5.1% SI24% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 24%FF 23%FC 19%CU 17%CH 13%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 75.6 mphCU76 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphSlider: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 78.9 mphSL79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 26.5% 438 100 qualified
FB 21.1% 349 99 qualified
FC 18.0% 298 99 qualified
CB 16.5% 272 100 qualified
CH 13.2% 218 99 qualified
SL 4.6% 76 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Changeup 19%, Cutter 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.58
K% Δ+0.019
Sample150.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.5----
Batters Faced321----
K%20.7%19.0% to 27.2%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.5%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%19.3%17.1% to 23.8%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.190.74 to 1.73+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.3040.282 to 0.329+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.852.93 to 5.38+/- 1.22
FIP3.792.97 to 4.51+/- 0.77
WHIP1.3351.154 to 1.583+/- 0.215
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

735 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%23.4%
BB%5.0%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

2678 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.3%