Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Suarez, Ranger

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
19.0% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.42
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.56 2.97 3.42 3.88 4.29
FIP
3.17 3.43 3.71 4.00 4.26
K%
19.7% 20.9% 22.3% 23.7% 24.9%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.3% 8.1% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
64 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
65
Fastball velo91.0
7
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
76
K%23.4%
55 +19 vs proj
Whiff%21.3%
35 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
62
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Ranger · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2842026-05-19: 0.2842026-05-21: 0.2852026-05-23: 0.2852026-05-24: 0.2852026-05-25: 0.2852026-05-26: 0.2852026-05-28: 0.2982026-05-29: 0.2982026-05-30: 0.2982026-05-31: 0.2982026-06-01: 0.301 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Ranger · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.6%Cutter: 21.1%4-Seam Fastball: 19.1%Changeup: 17.0%Curveball: 14.7%Slider: 1.4% MIX SI 27%FC 21%FF 19%CH 17%CU 15%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.3, IVB 2.3SIFC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.2FCFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.6FFCH: HB -0.7, IVB 3.3CHCU: HB 0.4, IVB 4.9CUSL: HB -0.7, IVB 3.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 27.1% 248 100 qualified
FC 20.5% 188 102 limited sample
FB 19.3% 177 97 limited sample
CH 16.4% 150 100 limited sample
CB 15.1% 138 97 limited sample
SL 1.5% 14 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Changeup 19%, Cutter 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.83
K% Δ+0.027
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.8----
Batters Faced319----
K%20.7%19.0% to 27.2%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.5%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%19.3%17.1% to 23.8%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.190.74 to 1.73+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.3040.282 to 0.329+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.852.93 to 5.38+/- 1.22
FIP3.792.97 to 4.51+/- 0.77
WHIP1.3351.153 to 1.583+/- 0.215
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

735 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%23.4%
BB%5.0%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

2678 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.3%