Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Suarez, Ranger

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
19.0% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
73
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.15
ERA rolling p503.42
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.53 2.95 3.42 3.89 4.31
FIP
2.74 3.00 3.30 3.59 3.86
K%
21.4% 22.5% 23.8% 25.0% 26.1%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
65
ERA3.15
73
BB%6.8%
78
K%25.3%
70 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
80 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
79 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo91.0
6
Hard-hit allowed31.2%
93
Whiff%22.5%
46 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Sinker Stuff+100
32
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Ranger · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-07-06: 0.2832026-07-07: 0.2832026-07-08: 0.2832026-07-09: 0.2832026-07-10: 0.2832026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2832026-07-13: 0.2832026-07-14: 0.2832026-07-15: 0.2832026-07-16: 0.2832026-07-17: 0.283 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Ranger · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 23.5%4-Seam Fastball: 21.7%Cutter: 21.0%Curveball: 16.5%Changeup: 14.9%Slider: 2.5% SI23% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 23%FF 22%FC 21%CU 17%CH 15%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.4 mphSI90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.9 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 75.4 mphCU75 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphSlider: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 78.2 mphSL78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 25.9% 287 100 qualified
FB 20.9% 231 100 qualified
FC 20.0% 221 101 qualified
CB 16.0% 177 98 limited sample
CH 15.2% 168 100 limited sample
SL 2.1% 23 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Changeup 19%, Cutter 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.70
K% Δ+0.046
Sample94.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.4----
Batters Faced317----
K%20.7%19.0% to 27.2%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.5%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%19.3%17.1% to 23.8%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.190.74 to 1.73+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.3040.282 to 0.329+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.852.93 to 5.38+/- 1.22
FIP3.792.97 to 4.51+/- 0.77
WHIP1.3351.153 to 1.583+/- 0.215
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

735 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%23.4%
BB%5.0%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

2678 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.3%