Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Weissert, Greg

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
16.0% to 27.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace3.34
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.18 2.80 3.48 4.16 4.77
FIP
3.14 3.52 3.94 4.37 4.75
K%
19.2% 20.8% 22.5% 24.2% 25.8%
BB%
6.1% 7.0% 8.0% 9.1% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
64
ERA3.34
74
BB%7.7%
68
K%23.5%
61 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.293
75
Barrel allowed5.2%
84 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed31.0%
94
Whiff%20.8%
34
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Sinker Stuff+107
84
Changeup Stuff+102
50
Curveball Stuff+97
5
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+105
79
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weissert, Greg · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.293 2026-09-12: 0.3042026-09-13: 0.3042026-09-14: 0.3012026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2942026-09-21: 0.2942026-09-22: 0.2942026-09-23: 0.2942026-09-24: 0.2942026-09-25: 0.2942026-09-26: 0.293 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weissert, Greg · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weissert, Greg · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.2%4-Seam Fastball: 29.5%Changeup: 13.2%Sweeper: 12.6%Slider: 8.2%Curveball: 2.2% SI34% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 34%FF 30%CH 13%ST 13%SL 8%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weissert, Greg · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphSlider: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.8% 219 107 qualified
FB 29.8% 193 101 limited sample
SL 21.8% 141 105 limited sample
CH 13.0% 84 102 limited sample
CB 1.5% 10 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 28%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.58
K% Δ+0.020
Sample60.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.5----
Batters Faced165----
K%21.4%16.0% to 27.4%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 11.9%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%20.6%17.7% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.210.57 to 2.06+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3010.256 to 0.351+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.7%4.3% to 11.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.922.01 to 5.67+/- 1.83
FIP4.083.16 to 5.42+/- 1.13
WHIP1.3011.077 to 1.710+/- 0.316
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%18.3%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.9%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.4%