Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Weissert, Greg

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
16.0% to 27.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal5 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace3.82
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.38 3.01 3.70 4.40 5.02
FIP
3.30 3.69 4.12 4.55 4.93
K%
18.0% 19.8% 21.8% 23.8% 25.6%
BB%
5.8% 6.9% 8.0% 9.2% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
69
ERA3.82
54
BB%7.5%
69
K%22.4%
49
xwOBA allowed0.284
79
Barrel allowed4.5%
89 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
89
Whiff%20.6%
31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+107
82
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Slider Stuff+108
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weissert, Greg · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.284 2026-07-06: 0.2872026-07-07: 0.2812026-07-08: 0.2812026-07-09: 0.2812026-07-10: 0.2792026-07-11: 0.2792026-07-12: 0.2882026-07-13: 0.2842026-07-14: 0.2842026-07-15: 0.2842026-07-16: 0.2842026-07-17: 0.284 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weissert, Greg · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weissert, Greg · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.9%4-Seam Fastball: 29.5%Sweeper: 15.9%Changeup: 9.8%Slider: 7.0%Curveball: 1.9% SI36% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 36%FF 30%ST 16%CH 10%SL 7%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weissert, Greg · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 36% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mphSlider: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 81.3 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.4% 148 106 limited sample
FB 28.7% 117 101 limited sample
SL 24.8% 101 108 limited sample
CH 8.1% 33 107 limited sample
CB 2.0% 8 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 28%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.10
K% Δ+0.009
Sample38.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.0----
Batters Faced167----
K%21.4%16.0% to 27.4%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 11.9%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%20.6%17.7% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.210.57 to 2.06+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3010.256 to 0.351+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.7%4.3% to 11.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.922.01 to 5.67+/- 1.83
FIP4.083.16 to 5.42+/- 1.13
WHIP1.3011.077 to 1.710+/- 0.316
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%18.3%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.9%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.4%