Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Miller, Erik

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
20.0% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace3.29
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.80 2.60 3.48 4.36 5.15
FIP
2.51 3.04 3.63 4.21 4.74
K%
22.5% 24.9% 27.5% 30.1% 32.4%
BB%
9.7% 11.4% 13.2% 15.1% 16.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
30
ERA3.29
70
BB%15.6%
3 -16 vs proj
K%30.5%
94 +24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
68
Barrel allowed9.0%
31 -27 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
85
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
70
Whiff%32.9%
97
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+87
2
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Sinker Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+105
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Erik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.295 2026-07-05: 0.3142026-07-06: 0.3142026-07-07: 0.3082026-07-08: 0.3082026-07-09: 0.3082026-07-10: 0.3082026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.2992026-07-13: 0.2992026-07-14: 0.2952026-07-15: 0.2952026-07-16: 0.295 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Erik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 40%40%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.7%Slider: 40.3%4-Seam Fastball: 10.8%Changeup: 6.1% SI43% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 43%SL 40%FF 11%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 43% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.9 mphSI97 mphSlider: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.4% 174 103 limited sample
SL 37.3% 143 105 limited sample
FB 9.1% 35 90 limited sample
CH 8.1% 31 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.251 vs 0.277 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Changeup 25%, Slider 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.51
K% Δ+0.050
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.2----
Batters Faced154----
K%25.4%20.0% to 34.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%11.7%7.0% to 16.8%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%29.2%23.2% to 36.0%+/- 6.4%
HR/90.940.01 to 1.55+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3090.220 to 0.343+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.2%2.4% to 10.6%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.800.67 to 5.20+/- 2.27
FIP3.511.95 to 4.98+/- 1.51
WHIP1.3550.966 to 1.671+/- 0.352
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%26.7%
BB%11.8%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHH

272 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%22.7%
BB%12.5%
Barrel6.4%