Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Rutschman, Adley

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.335 xwOBA
Range
0.293 to 0.380
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.335
xwOBA current pace0.370
xwOBA rolling p500.351
Observed weight47%
xwOBA
0.320 0.335 0.351 0.367 0.382
wOBA
0.341 0.362 0.386 0.410 0.431
ISO
0.139 0.156 0.174 0.193 0.209
K%
12.5% 13.8% 15.2% 16.6% 17.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
70
Barrel%6.8%
72 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
48
Exit velocity89.7
65
Hard-hit%46.5%
78 +36 vs proj
K%14.1%
89
xBA0.343
67
xSLG0.567
66
xwOBA0.370
88 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
52
Catcher Throwing2.4 · C
97
Framing Runs4.6 · C
98
Pop Time2.0 · C
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · C
44
Sprint Speed26.7 · C
33
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.367 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
40
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rutschman, Adley · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3342026-05-19: 0.3342026-05-21: 0.3502026-05-23: 0.3492026-05-24: 0.3532026-05-25: 0.3562026-05-26: 0.3562026-05-28: 0.3672026-05-29: 0.3672026-05-30: 0.3672026-05-31: 0.3642026-06-01: 0.370 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Adley Rutschman's tools (88) outpace production (82) by 6 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rutschman, Adley · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsPull 17%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.2 / LA 81.02026-03-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 0.02026-03-18 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 14.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 49.02026-03-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 13.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.6 / LA 33.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA 7.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 1.02026-03-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 10.02026-03-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 16.02026-03-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 34.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 25.02026-03-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -28.02026-03-26 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -4.02026-03-26 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 21.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 45.02026-03-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 14.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA 3.02026-03-29 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 21.02026-03-30 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 25.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 53.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 28.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 16.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -9.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 32.02026-04-03 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 18.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -48.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -2.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · popup · EV 78.2 / LA 69.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 34.02026-04-04 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -2.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 41.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 0.02026-04-08 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 54.02026-04-10 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 68.1 / LA 16.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -11.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · popup · EV 89.8 / LA 64.02026-04-21 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 14.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 20.02026-04-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 28.02026-04-24 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 33.02026-04-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 31.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.3 / LA -30.02026-04-24 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 9.02026-04-24 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.5 / LA -28.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 47.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.6 / LA 33.02026-04-25 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 1.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 9.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 53.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 54.02026-04-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA -2.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 43.6 / LA 7.02026-04-28 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 10.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.1 / LA 80.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 7.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 49.02026-04-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 10.02026-04-30 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.3 / LA 71.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 2.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -10.02026-05-02 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -1.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -6.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.0 / LA 36.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 30.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 48.3 / LA -67.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 6.02026-05-04 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.6 / LA -3.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 30.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 75.9 / LA 18.02026-05-06 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 3.02026-05-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 13.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 31.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.7 / LA 22.02026-05-08 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 26.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -8.02026-05-09 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 14.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 8.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 26.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 25.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 50.02026-05-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 7.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 68.02026-05-12 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -28.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.1 / LA 13.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -25.02026-05-13 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 15.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 54.7 / LA 28.02026-05-13 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 37.02026-05-15 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 22.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA -8.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 43.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 5.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 71.8 / LA 16.02026-05-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 6.02026-05-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 29.02026-05-18 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -3.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 27.02026-05-19 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 6.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 35.02026-05-19 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 70.4 / LA 26.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · popup · EV 71.5 / LA 52.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -1.02026-05-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 81.9 / LA 14.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 52.0 / LA 61.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.2 / LA -3.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 25.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 38.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 42.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 22.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -2.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -2.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -26.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 28.02026-05-27 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 18.02026-05-27 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 3.02026-05-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 11.02026-05-31 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 41.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 56.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 26.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rutschman, Adley · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 12%12%Zone contact: 93%93%Contact: 88%88%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.035
wOBA Δ+0.051
Sample192 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances458----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3350.293 to 0.380+/- 0.044
ISO0.1560.104 to 0.218+/- 0.057
Barrel%5.3%3.4% to 7.6%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%38.2%34.0% to 45.8%+/- 5.9%
K%17.2%13.5% to 22.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%10.0%7.6% to 13.2%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2730.250 to 0.326+/- 0.038
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

634 career PA

xwOBA0.302
K%12.2%
BB%10.4%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

1615 career PA

xwOBA0.284
K%13.7%
BB%9.2%
Barrel4.5%