Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Rutschman, Adley
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
64
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.348 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.328
0.342
0.357
0.370
wOBA
0.323
0.340
0.359
0.378
0.395
ISO
0.136
0.150
0.165
0.181
0.195
K%
12.5%
13.6%
14.8%
16.1%
17.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
56
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%42.9%
67
+21 vs proj
xBA0.330
60
xSLG0.521
55
xwOBA0.348
83
BB%10.0%
67
Bat speed69.2
43
K%13.8%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
73
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
99
Framing Runs5.0 · C
96
Pop Time1.9 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · C
25
Sprint Speed26.3 · C
24
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions65.6% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
150 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| Sample | 290 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 458 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.335 | 0.293 to 0.380 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.156 | 0.104 to 0.218 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 7.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 34.0% to 45.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 17.2% | 13.5% to 22.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 10.0% | 7.6% to 13.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.250 to 0.326 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
634 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 10.4% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
1615 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 13.7% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |