Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Bello, Brayan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
16.7% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace4.33
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight69%
ERA
3.18 3.68 4.24 4.81 5.31
FIP
3.32 3.57 3.84 4.10 4.35
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.4% 20.5% 21.4%
BB%
6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.33
42
BB%6.9%
79 +21 vs proj
K%18.9%
29
xwOBA allowed0.337
25
Barrel allowed7.3%
52
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
40
Whiff%23.0%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
63
Cutter Stuff+101
45
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Fastball Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+102
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bello, Brayan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-09-13: 0.3512026-09-14: 0.3512026-09-18: 0.3492026-09-19: 0.3492026-09-20: 0.3492026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3402026-09-24: 0.3402026-09-25: 0.3402026-09-26: 0.3372026-09-27: 0.337 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bello, Brayan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.6%Changeup: 20.2%Cutter: 14.9%Sweeper: 13.2%4-Seam Fastball: 9.5%Curveball: 3.6% SI39% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 39%CH 20%FC 15%ST 13%FF 9%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphCH89 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 40.1% 606 99 qualified
CH 19.5% 295 103 qualified
FC 15.3% 231 101 qualified
SL 12.8% 193 102 limited sample
FB 8.1% 123 96 limited sample
CB 4.2% 64 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 35%, Sweeper 19%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.12
K% Δ-0.008
Sample120.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings78.1----
Batters Faced342----
K%19.8%16.7% to 25.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%8.2%6.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.9%19.6% to 26.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.310.84 to 1.94+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3360.296 to 0.358+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.8% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA4.453.05 to 5.88+/- 1.42
FIP4.343.47 to 4.83+/- 0.68
WHIP1.3451.120 to 1.599+/- 0.239
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1255 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%16.5%
BB%9.4%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1156 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%20.9%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.4%