{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-27", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-27T08:04:44.911665", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 16, "skipped_start_count": 12, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823408, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.86, "skill_score": 69.0, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8674, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7632, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.638, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5064, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3822, "prob_4_plus": 0.8674, "prob_5_plus": 0.7632, "prob_6_plus": 0.638, "prob_7_plus": 0.5064, "prob_8_plus": 0.3822, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 98.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 90.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "matchup_score": 88.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.6, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823084, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.77, "skill_score": 57.0, "opportunity_score": 47.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 45.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8618, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7549, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6275, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4949, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.371, "prob_4_plus": 0.8618, "prob_5_plus": 0.7549, "prob_6_plus": 0.6275, "prob_7_plus": 0.4949, "prob_8_plus": 0.371, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.909, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 90.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 88.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823731, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "skill_score": 68.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.44, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.966, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8226, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6983, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5589, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4223, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3021, "prob_4_plus": 0.8226, "prob_5_plus": 0.6983, "prob_6_plus": 0.5589, "prob_7_plus": 0.4223, "prob_8_plus": 0.3021, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 82.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 169.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 81.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823650, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 26.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "prob_4_plus": 0.7916, "prob_5_plus": 0.6557, "prob_6_plus": 0.5099, "prob_7_plus": 0.3731, "prob_8_plus": 0.2579, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 88.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 162.6, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.0, "expected_contact_quality": 64.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 63.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823490, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 10.4, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.996, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.4, "expected_contact_quality": 146.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 49.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 824705, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 35.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 65.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "prob_4_plus": 0.7108, "prob_5_plus": 0.5528, "prob_6_plus": 0.3998, "prob_7_plus": 0.2701, "prob_8_plus": 0.1715, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.941, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 64.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 58.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 120.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823084, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 37.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.909, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 61.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.5, "expected_contact_quality": 136.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 822679, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 13.4, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "prob_4_plus": 0.6904, "prob_5_plus": 0.5284, "prob_6_plus": 0.3753, "prob_7_plus": 0.2487, "prob_8_plus": 0.1547, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 61.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.019, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.7, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.4, "expected_contact_quality": 114.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823650, "pitcher_id": 665152, "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 41.4, "opportunity_score": 39.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 65.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6784, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5144, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3615, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2368, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1455, "prob_4_plus": 0.6784, "prob_5_plus": 0.5144, "prob_6_plus": 0.3615, "prob_7_plus": 0.2368, "prob_8_plus": 0.1455, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "temperature_f": 67.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 76.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 48.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.5, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 48.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823246, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 37.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.412, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 54.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.7, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 49.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 822761, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 17.5, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "prob_4_plus": 0.5708, "prob_5_plus": 0.3965, "prob_6_plus": 0.2528, "prob_7_plus": 0.1493, "prob_8_plus": 0.0823, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.9, "expected_contact_quality": 100.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.2, "expected_contact_quality": 98.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823408, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 46.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.513, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.114, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "prob_4_plus": 0.513, "prob_5_plus": 0.3388, "prob_6_plus": 0.2046, "prob_7_plus": 0.114, "prob_8_plus": 0.0592, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 62.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.992, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.6, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 50.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 47.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.5, "expected_contact_quality": 106.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 824542, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "prob_4_plus": 0.4927, "prob_5_plus": 0.3195, "prob_6_plus": 0.1891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1032, "prob_8_plus": 0.0525, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 47.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.7, "expected_contact_quality": 77.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 37.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.7, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823814, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.44, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 12.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4409, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2723, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1529, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.079, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.038, "prob_4_plus": 0.4409, "prob_5_plus": 0.2723, "prob_6_plus": 0.1529, "prob_7_plus": 0.079, "prob_8_plus": 0.038, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 65.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 53.6, "expected_contact_quality": 79.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 30.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.2, "expected_contact_quality": 106.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823731, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.19, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.391, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.027, "prob_4_plus": 0.391, "prob_5_plus": 0.2295, "prob_6_plus": 0.1221, "prob_7_plus": 0.0596, "prob_8_plus": 0.027, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 33.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.5, "expected_contact_quality": 96.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 70.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 31.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.0, "expected_contact_quality": 63.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "game_pk": 823246, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.15, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 30.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.904, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3829, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2228, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1174, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0568, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0255, "prob_4_plus": 0.3829, "prob_5_plus": 0.2228, "prob_6_plus": 0.1174, "prob_7_plus": 0.0568, "prob_8_plus": 0.0255, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 11.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 41.8, "expected_contact_quality": 68.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 17.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 15.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.7, "expected_contact_quality": 101.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:04:44.911279+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 687792, "pitcher_name": "DJ Herz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695684, "pitcher_name": "Elmer Rodr\u00edguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686751, "pitcher_name": "Seth Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693313, "pitcher_name": "Carson Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682227, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Williamson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 689981, "pitcher_name": "River Ryan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702275, "pitcher_name": "JR Ritchie", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }