{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-18", "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-18T23:45:12.189047", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 13, "skipped_start_count": 17, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 822847, "pitcher_id": 656302, "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 57.1, "opportunity_score": 54.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8507, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7384, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6072, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4729, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3497, "prob_4_plus": 0.8507, "prob_5_plus": 0.7384, "prob_6_plus": 0.6072, "prob_7_plus": 0.4729, "prob_8_plus": 0.3497, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 82.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.3, "expected_contact_quality": 80.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.5, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 823898, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 60.8, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8372, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7189, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5835, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4478, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3259, "prob_4_plus": 0.8372, "prob_5_plus": 0.7189, "prob_6_plus": 0.5835, "prob_7_plus": 0.4478, "prob_8_plus": 0.3259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 95.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 159.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 89.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "matchup_score": 89.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 823331, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 45.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 83.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 80.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.1, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 823252, "pitcher_id": 601713, "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 47.0, "opportunity_score": 6.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.785, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "prob_4_plus": 0.785, "prob_5_plus": 0.6469, "prob_6_plus": 0.5001, "prob_7_plus": 0.3635, "prob_8_plus": 0.2494, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.929, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 86.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.3, "expected_contact_quality": 114.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 824303, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "adjustment_delta": 0.69, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.146, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7481, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.599, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4479, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3138, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2071, "prob_4_plus": 0.7481, "prob_5_plus": 0.599, "prob_6_plus": 0.4479, "prob_7_plus": 0.3138, "prob_8_plus": 0.2071, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 61.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.145, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 90.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 88.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "matchup_score": 87.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.5, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 825032, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6784, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5144, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3615, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2368, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1455, "prob_4_plus": 0.6784, "prob_5_plus": 0.5144, "prob_6_plus": 0.3615, "prob_7_plus": 0.2368, "prob_8_plus": 0.1455, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 103.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "matchup_score": 47.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.8, "expected_contact_quality": 77.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 824790, "pitcher_id": 700249, "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 19.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.652, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.484, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "prob_4_plus": 0.652, "prob_5_plus": 0.484, "prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 45.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 41.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.3, "expected_contact_quality": 77.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 41.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 123.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 822923, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.461, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.114, "prob_4_plus": 0.6314, "prob_5_plus": 0.461, "prob_6_plus": 0.3106, "prob_7_plus": 0.1945, "prob_8_plus": 0.114, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.979, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 68.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.6, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "matchup_score": 61.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 89.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 60.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 822847, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.412, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.045, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 45.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.1, "expected_contact_quality": 119.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 40.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 824790, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "prob_4_plus": 0.5841, "prob_5_plus": 0.4103, "prob_6_plus": 0.2648, "prob_7_plus": 0.1584, "prob_8_plus": 0.0886, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.0, "expected_contact_quality": 96.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 39.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 38.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.1, "expected_contact_quality": 94.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 824463, "pitcher_id": 605280, "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5641, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3895, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2468, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1448, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0793, "prob_4_plus": 0.5641, "prob_5_plus": 0.3895, "prob_6_plus": 0.2468, "prob_7_plus": 0.1448, "prob_8_plus": 0.0793, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.025, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 56.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 51.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 103.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 45.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.5, "expected_contact_quality": 102.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 824138, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.559, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "prob_4_plus": 0.559, "prob_5_plus": 0.3843, "prob_6_plus": 0.2424, "prob_7_plus": 0.1415, "prob_8_plus": 0.0771, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 48.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.4, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 103.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "game_pk": 823005, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 53.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 49.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-19T03:45:12.188894+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 695505, "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682982, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Espino", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686930, "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641835, "pitcher_name": "Tim Mayza", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 689818, "pitcher_name": "David Sandlin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808825, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Sears", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687312, "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702885, "pitcher_name": "Cesar Perdomo", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }