Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 66.9 | Lineup K 5.73
|
5.98 | 5.97 | -0.01 | 80.2% | 66.9% | 52.5% | 38.8% | 27.1% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SEA
Score 55.2 | Lineup K 6.01
|
5.79 | 5.95 | +0.16 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BAL
Score 54.9 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.92 | 5.95 | +0.03 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CLE
Score 70.4 | Lineup K 5.31
|
5.58 | 5.58 | +0.00 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs LAA
Score 72.3 | Lineup K 6.15
|
5.07 | 5.55 | +0.48 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CWS
Score 61.1 | Lineup K 5.53
|
5.30 | 5.43 | +0.13 | 74.8% | 59.9% | 44.8% | 31.4% | 20.7% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs LAD
Score 34.0 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.55 | 5.40 | -0.15 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PIT
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 5.05
|
5.24 | 5.13 | -0.11 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs DET
Score 59.4 | Lineup K 5.92
|
4.56 | 5.12 | +0.56 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TEX
Score 49.3 | Lineup K 5.32
|
4.97 | 5.09 | +0.12 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs TB
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 4.84
|
5.08 | 4.98 | -0.10 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATH
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.69 | 4.81 | +0.12 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 5.06
|
4.65 | 4.78 | +0.13 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs NYY
Score 47.1 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.25 | 4.75 | +0.50 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SF
Score 45.7 | Lineup K 4.50
|
4.63 | 4.57 | -0.06 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs WSH
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 4.08
|
4.65 | 4.40 | -0.25 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.00 | 4.30 | +0.30 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIL
Score 22.6 | Lineup K 3.89
|
4.05 | 3.91 | -0.14 | 52.9% | 35.5% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYM
Score 10.0 | Lineup K 3.37
|
3.48 | 3.33 | -0.15 | 41.9% | 25.3% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 33.5 | Lineup K 4.59
|
2.96 | 3.27 | +0.31 | 40.7% | 24.3% | 13.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs AZ
Score 22.9 | Lineup K 3.88
|
3.04 | 3.26 | +0.22 | 40.5% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.