Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Rodón
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CWS
Score 61.6 | Lineup K 5.55
|
5.90 | 5.83 | -0.07 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SEA
Score 66.4 | Lineup K 6.26
|
5.48 | 5.83 | +0.35 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BAL
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.85
|
5.63 | 5.75 | +0.12 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIL
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 5.05
|
5.52 | 5.33 | -0.19 | 73.7% | 58.5% | 43.3% | 30.0% | 19.6% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs NYM
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 5.56
|
5.17 | 5.25 | +0.08 | 72.8% | 57.3% | 42.1% | 28.9% | 18.7% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PHI
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.70 | 4.97 | +0.27 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAA
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 5.83
|
4.39 | 4.90 | +0.51 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | confirmed
|
ATL vs SF
Score 51.4 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.82 | 4.85 | +0.03 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs HOU
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 4.42
|
4.77 | 4.59 | -0.18 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs PIT
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.04 | 4.27 | +0.23 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs KC
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.96 | 3.96 | +0.00 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs COL
Score 43.3 | Lineup K 5.00
|
3.57 | 3.94 | +0.37 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | confirmed
|
SF vs ATL
Score 29.0 | Lineup K 4.32
|
3.42 | 3.64 | +0.22 | 47.9% | 30.7% | 17.9% | 9.7% | 4.9% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BOS
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 5.16
|
3.29 | 3.64 | +0.35 | 47.9% | 30.7% | 17.9% | 9.7% | 4.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.