Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs PHI
Score 73.6 | Lineup K 5.67
|
6.36 | 6.23 | -0.13 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs STL
Score 74.4 | Lineup K 6.13
|
6.04 | 6.19 | +0.15 | 82.0% | 69.5% | 55.5% | 41.8% | 29.8% |
Spencer Strider
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 6.65
|
4.84 | 5.49 | +0.65 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 63.1 | Lineup K 5.26
|
5.41 | 5.41 | +0.00 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TEX
Score 63.3 | Lineup K 6.24
|
4.68 | 5.28 | +0.60 | 73.1% | 57.8% | 42.5% | 29.3% | 19.0% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs DET
Score 56.3 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.97 | 5.24 | +0.27 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SD
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 5.19
|
5.03 | 5.07 | +0.04 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs AZ
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 4.90
|
5.17 | 5.06 | -0.11 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PIT
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 5.40
|
4.70 | 4.92 | +0.22 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BOS
Score 35.2 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.86 | 4.82 | -0.04 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 32.5 | Lineup K 4.22
|
4.87 | 4.58 | -0.29 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CIN
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.76
|
4.02 | 4.51 | +0.49 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CHC
Score 33.3 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.64 | 4.44 | -0.20 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs WSH
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 4.45
|
4.05 | 4.17 | +0.12 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SEA
Score 34.3 | Lineup K 4.66
|
3.96 | 4.15 | +0.19 | 57.1% | 39.6% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs BAL
Score 30.5 | Lineup K 4.95
|
3.70 | 4.07 | +0.37 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SF
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.25
|
3.19 | 3.49 | +0.30 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.