Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SEA
Score 65.8 | Lineup K 6.26
|
5.86 | 6.08 | +0.22 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BAL
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 6.05
|
4.71 | 5.24 | +0.53 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs COL
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 5.99
|
4.42 | 5.01 | +0.59 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs TEX
Score 38.8 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.98 | 4.88 | -0.10 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.68 | 4.83 | +0.15 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs LAD
Score 37.7 | Lineup K 5.15
|
4.28 | 4.54 | +0.26 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIA
Score 54.5 | Lineup K 5.45
|
3.98 | 4.47 | +0.49 | 62.2% | 45.1% | 30.1% | 18.7% | 10.9% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CHC
Score 35.5 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.80 | 3.99 | +0.19 | 54.3% | 36.9% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs KC
Score 34.3 | Lineup K 4.26
|
3.84 | 3.94 | +0.10 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIN
Score 32.0 | Lineup K 4.08
|
3.48 | 3.60 | +0.12 | 47.2% | 30.0% | 17.4% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CWS
Score 32.6 | Lineup K 4.02
|
3.10 | 3.37 | +0.27 | 42.7% | 26.0% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYM
Score 20.2 | Lineup K 3.73
|
3.14 | 3.23 | +0.09 | 39.9% | 23.6% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.