The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Rutschman, Adley in signal, the comp in amber.
BAL · bats L · 290 PA
Ranked comps for Rutschman, Adley
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 211 PA | 0.84 | Strikeout rateGround-ball rateAvg exit velocity | Sweet-spot rate -0.9zWhiff rate +0.7zIsolated power -0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Jung, Josh TEX · R · 389 PA | 0.77 | Bat speedSwing lengthMax exit velocity | Fly-ball rate -1.5zHard-hit rate +0.8zGround-ball rate +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Freeman, Freddie LAD · L · 429 PA | 0.75 | Max exit velocityBat speedFly-ball rate | In-zone contact -1.2zxwOBA on contact +0.9zSprint speed -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L · 359 PA | 0.74 | Bat speedAvg exit velocityBarrel rate | Strikeout rate +1.3zChase rate +0.9zWhiff rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Wetherholt, JJ STL · L · 421 PA | 0.72 | xwOBA on contactBarrel rateWalk rate | Swing length +1.3zSprint speed +1.1zIn-zone contact -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 241 PA | 0.71 | Swing lengthChase rateStrikeout rate | In-zone contact -1.4zGround-ball rate +1.3zFly-ball rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Smith, Dominic ATL · L · 248 PA | 0.69 | Oppo rateGround-ball rateSprint speed | Sweet-spot rate -1.3zIsolated power -1.1zBat speed -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Karros, Kyle COL · R · 343 PA | 0.68 | Isolated powerSwing lengthBarrel rate | Whiff rate +1.6zStrikeout rate +1.1zFly-ball rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L · 311 PA | 0.68 | Whiff rateBarrel rateWalk rate | Pull rate +1.3zSweet-spot rate -1.1zIsolated power -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 280 PA | 0.67 | Bat speedSweet-spot ratexwOBA on contact | Sprint speed -1.4zWhiff rate +1.2zMax exit velocity -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Larnach, Trevor MIN · L · 307 PA | 0.66 | Barrel ratexwOBA on contactIsolated power | Whiff rate +1.8zIn-zone contact -1.2zHard-hit rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Grisham, Trent NYY · L · 321 PA | 0.66 | Isolated powerGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact | Chase rate -1.6zWalk rate +1.3zPull rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.