Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team DET
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
58
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.248 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.366 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.311
0.326
0.342
0.356
wOBA
0.356
0.370
0.386
0.402
0.416
ISO
0.114
0.129
0.145
0.160
0.175
K%
11.8%
14.0%
16.4%
18.8%
21.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
65
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%36.5%
38
xBA0.323
51
xSLG0.530
56
xwOBA0.366
92
+47 vs proj
BB%14.5%
96
+49 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
48
K%13.6%
92
+49 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
31
Arm Strength85.0 · SS
35
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
43
Range Runs-0.2 · SS
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.7 · SS
99
Bolts3.0 · SS
42
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
70
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.1% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.3% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions74.4% · rebadged research
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline116
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
51
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.307 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
224 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 435 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.149 to 0.279 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.082 to 0.240 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 0.7% to 7.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.9% | 15.1% to 43.2% | +/- 14.0% |
| K% | 23.4% | 7.6% to 33.7% | +/- 13.0% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 2.0% to 10.8% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.186 to 0.353 | +/- 0.084 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |